Thursday/Friday storm may be in weakening phase as it moves into the Great Lakes

Once we get past this afternoon's rain and snow all eyes will turn towards the west as the late week storm edges closer to the west coast.  The much anticipated low remains in the Gulf of Alaska and isn't expected to come onshore in California until Tuesday late afternoon.  Once it does it will take roughly 24 hours worth of observational data to obtain a complete sample of the system and really get a detailed storm track.  While the finer details are still a bit murky at this point, there seems to be a general consensus amongst most weather guidance suggesting the storm will be in a weakening phase as it moves closer to the Midwest and will take a little further track west of Illinois by Thursday night.  This still means Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin will experience snowfall Thursday but the heaviest snow may occur through Missouri, Iowa and the Dakotas.  This would also mean a chance for slightly warmer temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning which could cause the snow to switch over to a mix.

High pressure will be in place across southern Canada Wednesday afternoon as the low gains strength and pulls out of the southwest.  An east/southeast wind will also be in place across the Great Lakes causing the low to shift further west and north leaving Illinois on the 'warmer' side of the system.  At the same time, the low will be in it's weakening, or occluded, phase meaning once it reaches Northern Illinois late Thursday afternoon most of the energy will have been spent.  As of right now it appears as if the heaviest of the snow will fall from northern Missouri to Iowa and back through Nebraska and South Dakota.  We will see snow Thursday afternoon and Thursday night - that we know for sure - and as of right now it looks like several inches remain possible.  I'm not going to write-off this storm just yet because it hasn't moved onshore and it's possible a complete 180° may occur, but at this point a major snow event is becoming less likely.  Either way, travel conditions will deteoriate by late Thursday and continue overnight Thursday.