A White Christmas?

Sadly, it does not appear as though 2015 will feature a White Christmas. As we continue to get closer to the big holiday, we are starting to get a better idea of what will happen weather wise. And, as it looks now, forecast models want to keep temperatures mild and, consequently, precipitation as rainfall. Is this set in stone? No. We are still nearly a week out before Christmas Day. Therefore, the forecast will likely shift a little bit between now and late next week. However, it doesn't look like any changes will occur that will lead to the Stateline seeing the white stuff for the holiday.

It looks like a deep trough feature will move into the Western United States beginning early next week, and that corresponds to a ridge in the East. What that means is that cold air (trough) will be present across the West while above average temperatures (found within ridges) will reside east of the Mississippi River.

With this pattern in place, the cold air is forced to remain to the north and west of the Stateline. Until the strong ridge breaks down, the cold air will not be able to move much to the east or south. Along that gradient between the cold and warm air is where we will see our storm systems track. That will send them near the Rockford region through Christmas Week, but that is good news because it is to the east of the storm systems where the heaviest precipitation falls. Therefore, across Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, the heaviest of the rainfall looks like it will stay off to our east.

This set up will create very wet conditions from the Gulf of Mexico to the Tennessee Valley, all the way up to the Canadian border. For us, showers and light rain look more likely as these low pressure systems move on by.