Will We See a White Christmas?

Christmas is now a little over a week away, and with recent days in the 60's, a lot a people are asking; are we going to see a white Christmas?

There are a couple things to look at when determining whether or not we will see a white Christmas. One tool to use is something called CIPS analog guidance. CIPS stands for Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems. This system or resource takes current and projected data and guidance, and uses pattern recognition, among countless other processes, to find similar historic events. It then issues an impact based forecast, and shows the potential impacts a certain storm system could have.

If we take some of the guidance issued from CIPS for the period around Christmas we see a few things. The first map we will look at is the 500mb height field, this map shows an area of high pressure near the gulf, this that directs our steering winds from the southwest to the northeast. This puts the Stateline area in the way for a potential storm to track close to the area.

 With that pattern in place, it allows warmth to build and moisture to be able to be drawn in from the gulf, and into the Midwest and well as the entire east coast. With this type of jet placement, it could help to set the stage for a surge of warmth through Christmas. It is picked up by the 9-ll day CIPS temperature analog. The graphic below shows northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin in the 75th precentile for above average warmth, or there is a 75% chances temperatures then will be above average.

With the current set up, the CIPS precipitation analog is showing that the Stateline area has a 70-75% chance to see above normal precipitation. You can see that in the first graphic below; the second graphic shows a look at how much precipitation we could see, 9-11 days out. For our area, CIPS is showing the possibility for a quarter to an inch of precipitation.

So when we put this together, it is showing that the Stateline has a higher percentage to see above normal temperatures ( our average around that time is 30°) and also has a higher percentage to see above normal precipitation amounts. So as of now, it looks like we will mainly see more rain for Christmas, and not snow. However, this is by no means set in stone. With Christmas still over a week away, there is much that can change, and this should just be used to give a general idea on what we could see. One thing we do know, is that there looks to be a large system that will impact the U.S. the week of Christmas. You'll want to keep an eye on the forecast, especially if you plan to do any traveling.