Changing Pattern Brings Warmth, but Could Also Bring Cold

There were plenty of chills around Thursday afternoon.  And that was all thanks to the cloud cover today.  While temperatures were warming a few thousand feet above the surface of the earth, moisture near the surface kept the cloud cover around a bit longer than we had thought.  This caused highs to sit in the lower to middle 30's - still below average.

Those clouds have slowly been decreasing through the evening and that trend should continue into the overnight.  Although, decreasing clouds may lead to a little more fog by Friday morning.

Temperatures will be warming through the weekend and even into next week.  Some long-range forecast models are even suggesting a high probability of the 50's over much of the middle of the country, possibly even 60's!  However, we know that when we see that drastic of a temperature shift something big is about to happen.

Looking through forecast data and long-range forecast models, I do believe that sometime during the 14th-16th of December we will be in for a pattern change. 

The jet stream pattern heading into the weekend and early next week will be very active.  Numerous storm systems will be affecting the Pacific Northwest bringing rain, wind and higher elevation snow straight into next week. 

The jet stream pattern remains split across the country.  The northern branch will stay fairly active while the southern branch remains inactive.  As those storm systems move into the Northwest, they will get caught up in the jet stream and move into the Midwest just about every other day, with the first day being Sunday.  Precipitation doesn't look too promising with any of those systems as gulf moisture will be lacking.  And even though the jet stream will be active, it's not pulling down the cold, Arctic air from the north.

As I mentioned earlier sometime around next weekend a lot of warmth will move into the Midwest and Great Lakes.  This will occur because the jet stream will take a big dip down the west coast forcing the jet stream to buckle over the Great Lakes.  This big of a pattern change will also induce low pressure somewhere in the middle of the country.  In fact, we could be talking rain and thunderstorms before we get any more snow to fall!  But with that warmth also comes a lot of cold.  And if the current forecast holds up, we could be feeling that cold the weekend before Christmas.