Warm December & New Year's Outlook

The pattern this winter thus far has not lacked attention. A blocking high pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean and a low pressure system "stuck" near Newfoundland has disallowed extreme cold and winter weather to move into the region. In fact, December 30th is the first day of the entire month where high temperatures remained below the 30-degree mark. This is something that does not typically happen in the Midwest during the month of December. Just how warm has it been?

 The average high temperature in the month of December in Rockford is 33°. Thus far, we have seen an average high temperature of over 44°. That makes for a +11° temperature difference. The average low temperature during December is 17°. We have only seen one night with temperatures at or below this temperature. In fact, our average low temperature this month matches our typical high temperature for the month of December. For the state of Illinois overall, the most above average December in terms of temperatures is likely, beating the old record set back in 1923.

The good news for cold and snow lovers is a change in the overall pattern is upcoming for the eastern half of the country. The blocking high will be further north. This will allow colder air to filter into the Midwest, Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Northeast more often. Does this mean we will see more snowfall? Not necessarily. While the temperatures will be colder in January and February, we may stay slightly drier than average. Nonetheless, more snow is likely, but it is difficult to say how much and if we will see a significant snowstorm.

The cold air is settling in this evening, and it will be around for New Year's Eve. Temperatures will likely start near 20° before warming into the middle 20's in the afternoon.

By the time we get into the evening when many of the activities start, clouds will begin eroding and temperatures will start falling through the teens. By the time we ring in 2016, temperatures will be in the lower to middle teens. So while we had a mild November and December, the beginning of January looks colder. There could be a few days where our high temperatures are actually below average!