Storm threat increases Monday - Severe threat not that far away

A strong area of low pressure to the west will bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing over the Plains as low pressure moves into northern Missouri.  Severe weather has been occurring in parts of Missouri and Arkansas Sunday evening, and will remain well south Sunday night.

As a warm front lifts closer to northern Illinois Monday morning, showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage from southwest to northeast between 7am and 10am, overspreading much of northern Illinois by Noon.  A break from the rain and storms may occur early afternoon, also allowing for a brief break in cloud cover.  If clearing is significant enough, instability will rise causing a higher threat for storms - some strong to severe - by the afternoon and evening.

As of Sunday night it looks like the greatest threat for severe weather will occur over central Illinois.  But a warm front lifting close to the I-80 and I-88 corridors could bring the threat for strong to severe storms northward.  If that occurs supercell thunderstorms may form increasing the chance for large hail, but also an increased threat for isolated tornadoes right along the warm front.

Thunderstorms will remain scattered throughout Monday night, before becoming more isolated by Tuesday morning.