Dry start to the month of May

 

Following a very wet April the first two weeks of May have been exceptionally dry. With only 0.05 inches of precipitation being recorded at the Rockford Airport this May, month to date, is the second driest start to May since records began in 1905! It follows 1958 and ties with 1928 - two years that were a long time ago.

The surplus of rainfall during the month of April helped bring northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin out of drought conditions but it has really dried out over the last two weeks, even though it has also been a cooler start to the month. Rain chances do look to ramp up heading into the weekend thanks to a more active pattern that'll start to take shape Friday night.

Skies will remain mostly clear through Thursday evening as high pressure hangs on across the eastern Great Lakes. You'll start to see an increase in some higher-level clouds, already moving in across northwest Illinois, through sunset. These will thicken up as a warm front moves a little closer. There are a few showers and thunderstorms ongoing across Iowa and Minnesota but those will continue to fizzle as they encounter the drier air to the east. Late Thursday night an upper-level disturbance will move in giving us a chance for a few passing showers into Friday morning. Any steady rain and thunderstorms will likely miss us to the south over central Illinois.

The warm front will pass to our north Friday afternoon as southerly winds increase, gusting around 30 mph. This will help push afternoon temperatures into the mid and upper 70s. Most of the afternoon will remain dry but the chance for showers and thunderstorms is set to return Friday night with the arrival of a cold front. While not much cold air is behind this front, it will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms heading into the weekend. 

Strong to severe storms are likely to our west Friday afternoon and evening, and that's where we find a 'slight risk' for severe storms - centered over southern Iowa, northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska. Further east, a 'marginal risk' for isolated strong to severe storms can be found over most of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. This would be for any storms we get overnight Friday. The main risks with those storms would be primarily hail. 

The front will stall over the region Saturday afternoon and will be the focus for additional showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.