Humidity is not something we have needed to talk about for a while, but this weekend will bring a very muggy feel compared to average conditions for mid-May. Dew point temperatures will surge all the way into the 60s beginning Saturday afternoon, until a cold front swings through Tuesday.
Moisture is just one ingredient for thunderstorms, though. Instability is a measure storm energy, describing how quickly air will rise and form an updraft. Saturday through Tuesday will bring substantial amounts of instability nearby and especially to the West, but the main question is if there is enough forcing to develop storms.
Each day Friday through Tuesday features at least an isolated severe weather potential nearby. Friday night and Saturday both have Level 1/5 Marginal risk for parts of the area, indicating an isolated severe storm may be possible, primarily in the evenings.
The Storm Prediction Center has 15% risks nearby or overhead (Monday) each of Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Monday has the best environmental conditions for severe storms, but each day may feature some strong storms. The exact timing of each wave will be hard to pinpoint until closer, as previous waves will determine outflow boundaries and other small-scale features that will impact storm threats.
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