The cold front currently moving through the Upper Midwest will stall out across the southern Great Lakes tonight and Wednesday, thanks to a high pressure system in the southeast. While we could see a few gusty storms this afternoon the threat will shift to rainfall later tonight as southerly winds on the backside of the high continue to transport moisture right along the front. Precipitable water values (which measures how much available moisture we have above us) sit around an inch or a little more. Now, if the front moves just a little further to the south the heaviest threat for rain will be placed in southern Iowa and northern Missouri. If it stays fairly close to the Wisconsin/Illinois the border the heaviest rain threat will then be shifted north.
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