Thursday, July 21, 2011

Another day of heat; Storms possible later this afternoon

11:35am Update:  Thunderstorms currently moving into extreme northeast Stephenson county will affect sections of far northwest Winnebago county within the next 30 minutes.  Brief heavy downpour along with frequent lightning will remain possible.

(11:04:51 AM) nwsbot: MKX issues STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GREEN COUNTY for Green, Lafayette [WI] till 12:00 PM CDT

11:00am Update:  The showers that were in Iowa continue to move northeast into southwest Wisconsin and northwest Illinois that this afternoon.  These will continue to affect sections of Jo Daviess and Stephenson counties and Green county in Wisconsin. 


First off:  Excessive Heat Warning continues for all of the northern Illinois counties through this evening.  Heat Advisory has now been issued for Green, Rock and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin.  Temperatures are expected to rise into the middle and possibly upper 90s this afternoon with the heat index nearing 100°.  This will be ahead of a weak cold front that will move through later this afternoon.


Sunny skies and a very humid air mass are in place across northern Illinois and that is what could help fuel a few storms later today.  Storms fired up early this morning along the cold front in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.  They are currently moving to the northeast and are now just west of Dubuque.  While the front itself won't likely be here until mid-afternoon, there are some outflow boundaries that are forming from the rain cooled air.  Within the past 20 minutes I have noticed that a few more storm cells have popped up along this boundary in eastern Iowa.  While they are a ways away there may be a couple storms that move close to our counties near the Mississippi River.  That's why I'm going to keep the storm chance going through this afternoon.  As the front passes it will stall to our south overnight and should another storm complex develop out in the Plains later this evening, it would follow that boundary.  This *could give us a heavy rain threat by early Friday morning.  If these storms don't develop, then we would likely not see any rain from it.  Storm chances will continue through the weekend until the front passes late on Sunday.

2 comments:

  1. At this point, what would you say are our storm chances for severe weather this afternoon and evening??

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  2. FirstWarn Weather TeamJuly 21, 2011 at 12:08 PM

    Severe chances at this point are slim. The cold front is passing through and there isn't much upper level support. Any storms that would develop would likely produce gusty winds and gusty winds.

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