Friday, September 30, 2016

Scattered Rain Chances to Start Weekend

It's been dominating our weather pattern across the Midwest for the past week or so... yes I'm talking about that pesky upper level low pressure system. Its currently located over Kentucky this morning and that is why most of Thursday afternoon and evening remained dry. However, that low pressure is still forecast to retrograde this afternoon. That essentially means it will move from the east to the west, from Kentucky to northwest Indiana through the day. With that forecast track, the chance for rain will increase today, but especially for the evening.

We can expect this afternoon to remain cloudy and windy, with northeast winds at 15mph and gusting to 25 mph. In terms of the rain, the Stateline looks to pick up on widely scattered lighter showers. For the afternoon, the highest coverage would be right around Lake Michigan with rain likely there today. For the Stateline, the highest coverage remains near our eastern counties with about a 40-50% chance. For areas closer to Rockford the chance drops a bit to 30-40%, and west of Freeport and Oregon the chance is dropped to about 10-20%.

Rain threat decreases from east to west because of the movement of the low. Today the rain will move in from the east and then tracks west. The low is drawing in moisture from the Atlantic and at first it will be harder for western counties to receive that, along with the lift from the low also decreasing the further west you head.

As mentioned though, tonight with the low almost overhead, the chance for rain really goes up, and turns likely for the entire area closer to midnight.

The low is finally able to scoot northeast tomorrow and that will keep rain in the forecast through the mid-afternoon and then diminishes late in the day. We keep the clouds from the low on Sunday but we stay on the dry side, before warmth and more sun arrives on Monday of next week.

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