We are watching a low pressure system currently developing in New Mexico and Colorado as it could impact our weekend weather here in Illinois. It will strengthen and deepen over Kansas on Saturday before moving into Missouri and fading over southern Indiana. Plenty of rainfall will be associated with the low, especially just north of its eventual track, which is depicted here by the red arrows. Thunderstorms don't really look likely for anyone near the Stateline as instability looks to hover well south of the region. Therefore, even if we squeeze out some rain this weekend, it doesn't look likely that it will be extremely heavy, nor does it look likely that we see thunderstorms.
As of Friday evening, the axis of heaviest rainfall still looks to remain roughly along I-70 from Kansas City to St. Louis to Springfield to Indianapolis to Cincinnati. That is something that can stated with high confidence. However, what is not yet set in stone is how far north the low pressure system moves. If it tracks any further north than what models suggest currently, rain will become a legitimate possibility for northern Illinois on Sunday. Counties such as Lee, Ogle, Whiteside, Carroll, and DeKalb have the best shot at seeing any rainfall as it looks now, but models do continue edging the rainfall further north. Therefore, Sunday's forecast for the area features a 30% chance of rain showers, mainly along and south of U.S. 20. It won't be a washout, there won't be severe weather, and heavy rain doesn't look highly probable. Overall, the system will bring enhanced cloud cover on both Saturday and Sunday, but the heavy rain will be a near miss for the Rockford region.
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