Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Hot, Humid & Periodically Stormy

This week will be characterized by three things: heat, humidity, and thunderstorms. Some of the storms will have the chance of being quite robust, especially late Tuesday night and then again Thursday night. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area in a Marginal Risk of severe weather Tuesday night. Strong winds will be the primary concern, along with some heavy rain if the storms hold together as they move towards Illinois from Minnesota.
Wednesday we have a chance of storms with stronger storms possible. Thursday's severe risk looks like the highest of the week with a Slight Risk of severe weather being issued for the region for hail and damaging winds. Determining exactly where the storms will form and move on Thursday is going to depend on what happens on Wednesday, so the risk area may change between now and then.

What makes the forecast complicated beyond Tuesday night's storms is the fact that so many variables go into determining where thunderstorms will develop. One of those is the previous day or night's rain. Thus, wherever the thunderstorms end up tracking Tuesday night could strongly dictate what happens later on Wednesday. For that reason, Wednesday will feature just an isolated to scattered chance of storms.
The other side of the story this week will be the heat and humidity. Temperatures will likely rise into the upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Combining those numbers with dew points in the lower 70s (really humid!) will result in heat index values in the mid-90s during the warmest part of the day on both Wednesday and Thursday. Definitely a different story from the 70s we saw this past weekend! Summer has returned.

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