Rainfall Concerns

Plenty of rain has fallen through early Thursday morning with an MCS (mesoscale convective system) that quickly moved through the area. There were also multiple severe thunderstorm warnings issued after midnight, and a few damaging wind gusts were reported. In terms of rainfall totals, many areas have exceed 1". Some locations have recorded more than 1.5" and even 2", including Dixon, which has received nearly 2.25". With conditions being so dry of late, and with the heavy rainfall falling in such a short duration of time, localized flooding is possible in the typically flood-prone areas.

With mainly dry conditions expected Wednesday afternoon and night outside of isolated thunderstorms, the flooding threat will be much less. However, looking ahead to Thursday, we could see another round of thunderstorms later in the evening and night. That will also pose the threat of heavy rain and severe weather. As a result, we could re-aggravate the flooding concern with another 1-2" possible. There are no flood advisories in effect, but ponding on local roadways and low-lying area flooding are both possible early Wednesday morning, and will again be possible Thursday night.

The other aspect of Thursday night's rain will be the threat of severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire Stateline in an "Enhanced Risk" of severe weather, which suggests a moderately high probability of seeing severe weather. For northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, it appears as though damaging winds, hail, and very heavy rainfall are the main threats. The tornado threat looks minimal, but it is not quite zero. Keep with your First Warn Weather Team for further updates regarding any severe weather!