Severe Threat Continues for Thursday

Wind, rain and frequent lightning were the biggest issues with thunderstorms late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.  And a second round of thunderstorms are possible Thursday mid-day and again in the evening.

As for Wednesday evening/night, I think other than an outside chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two most of our evening is going to remain dry.  Good news if you're heading out to the Stephenson County Fair.

Thunderstorms over the Plains have quickly turned severe with numerous severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings.  These storms, like last night, will race east over the Midwest and into the Great Lakes by Thursday morning.  However, these storms are not expected to maintain their strength and intensity and I do expect them to be weakening as they move closer to Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin.

The storms out west overnight will be driven by the low level jet (stronger winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere) and several smaller low pressure systems.  These low pressure systems are forecast to move through Wisconsin and Northern Illinois mid-day Thursday...likely after 10am.  While we could see rain/thunder during the morning I think we've actually got a better chance for storms during mid-day Thursday.  Once those storms move out, then we could be in for another round of thunderstorms by the evening and early overnight.  Similar to what came through Tuesday night.  Here's the big question mark for those later storms, though.  How much of an impact, if any, will rain and thunder in the morning have on later storm development?

During the afternoon Thursday, thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Upper Midwest and quickly dive southeast following a cold front.  It's very well possible that this second round of storms could miss us just to the south and southwest because the atmosphere over Northern Illinois isn't unstable enough due to earlier morning rainfall.  However, with the threat for stronger thunderstorms relatively high during the afternoon and evening the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Wisconsin and Illinois under and 'Enhanced Risk' for severe weather.  Heavy rainfall, wind, hail and even an isolated tornado or two can't completely be ruled out for Thursday.