We are monitoring an area of rain and embedded thunder in Iowa this morning that will likely spread into the region later in the morning. It won't bring any severe weather, nor will it bring extremely heavy rainfall. It will introduce a chance of rain for the entire area from roughly 10am into the early afternoon hours. That is when things become difficult. Figuring out if a second round of storms will develop, and where exactly they will move is very hard to do because it will all depend on where exactly this morning's rain moves. If the early rain today moves out quick enough, we will have time to destabilize and recover enough to see additional thunderstorms this evening. And it's then that our severe weather risk ramps up significantly.
The Storm Prediction Center has our western counties (Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll, Whiteside, and Lee) under an Enhanced Risk of severe weather later today. Everyone else is in a Slight Risk of severe weather. Regardless, everyone in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin is under the gun for severe weather by this evening. However, Iowa into central Illinois is where the highest probability of severe weather exists as it looks now.
The primary threats will be strong, damaging winds and heavy rainfall, which could lead to isolated flooding concerns. The hail threat is low and the tornado threat is very low. It looks as though another MCS, or line of severe thunderstorms, will move through late this evening, much like what we witnessed very early Wednesday morning. However, there is ample uncertainty surrounding the development of tonight's storms because we don't know exactly what will happen with this morning's activity. But there is decent confidence in tonight featuring thunderstorms for portions of the Stateline.
No comments:
Post a Comment