The Spring season is a transitional season as the jet stream begins to lift back north pushing the cold air northward, and bringing more warmth northward. This transition also allows stronger storm systems to develop as the atmosphere tries to balance itself out between the warm and cold. Severe weather season also begins to ramp up during this time due to the stronger storm systems and big temperature differences that occur over country.
We are currently in a La Niña pattern and have been through most of the winter season. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting La Niña conditions to begin to transition over to ENSO-Neutral conditions during the March-May season.
The seasonal outlook for March, April and May was released mid-February, but can give us a rough idea of what we can expect during the Spring season. It's important to remember, however, that these seasonal forecast can, and sometimes do, change.
For temperatures, there isn't a clear signal that points to a higher probability of above average or below average temperatures over the Midwest and Great Lakes. But there is a higher probability of above average temperatures across the South and below average temperatures in the Northwest. This type of temperature outlook is fairly typical for La Niña patterns as more variability tends to occur with temperatures. This has definitely been the case this past month to month and a half.
As for precipitation, there are some signs that point to a trend that would lead to above average precipitation over the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast, with below average precipitation over the South, Southwest and West Coast.
The higher probability for above average precipitation could be a little concerning for farmers come planting season. Too much moisture could delay getting out in the fields. Something we'll want to monitor over the next month and a half.
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