Thursday, October 3, 2013

Weather update for the afternoon along with storm chances for the weekend


Heavy rain producing thunderstorms from earlier this morning have now moved into Wisconsin, however, scattered showers with a few thunderstorms will continue into the afternoon as a few weak upper level disturbances move through Iowa and into Wisconsin.  Severe weather is not expected this afternoon, but storms that do form will be capable of producing heavy rainfall.  The main focus for storms will remain along a warm front which currently sits north of the Dells.



Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through tonight but a better chance will be north along the warm front.  Looking ahead towards the weekend and the slower track of the storm system looks to be panning out.   Severe storms will likely erupt out west across parts of the central Plains up through Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin Friday afternoon.  Low pressure will be moving out of Nebraska with a warm front/stationary boundary in place across Wisconsin and a cold front extending southwest from the low into Kansas.  These two boundaries will become the focus for storm development during the afternoon.  At the same time a very strong upper level low will be moving east of the Rockies causing the surface low to strengthen.  Closer to home, it's possible that most of Northern Illinois will remain dry through the day which would allow temperatures to climb into the middle 80's (assuming cloud cover from any overnight storms isn't too thick). 

By Saturday morning the cold front will be crossing the Mississippi River.  At the same time the upper level low will begin to 'catch up' to the surface low causing the system to become stacked and occluded.  This basically means the low pressure system above is on top of the low pressure system at the surface.  Typically when this happens the energy within the storm system begins to weaken.  The cold front will move through Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin during the early afternoon.  If the front continues to slow down then damaging wind producing thunderstorms would be possible for Saturday afternoon and evening.  Stay with us as we continue to track the system as it moves east over the Rockies.

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