Friday, August 19, 2016

Another Bout of Rain for the Stateline

An MCS that moved through Wisconsin overnight has continued to propagate to the south and east had shown new convective development on the southern edge of the system in southwest Wisconsin. This line and attending Mesoscale Convective System are currently sinking southeast through the area and have continue to weaken.

As the storms entered Green county in Wisconsin

there were reports of pea sized hail, but the biggest threat with the storms was heavy rainfall.

The storms were not picked up but model guidance at all, and actually developed on small synoptic scale features. This particular line of storms developed from the outflow boundary of the MCS in Wisconsin. Outflow boundaries are essentially small cool fronts left behind from the outward rush of cool air from storms. These areas then allow for new convection to develop. These storms tracked in an east south east fashion, because that is where more instability was present.

As storms continue to die down and move out of the area, we will have some dry hours through midday today and into the afternoon. Another disturbance will rotate nearby that will once again bring more scattered rainfall through the area.

A stronger system is then forecast to make an  appearance in the Stateline late tonight and into Saturday. The mid-level disturbance that is currently near Montana with dive southeast into the Mid-Missouri Valley early tomorrow, in turn then deepening the surface low pressure in that area. This along with a cold front will bring mainly the threat for heavy rain early Saturday morning through the afternoon. There could be a few stronger storms, but overall instability is limited and heavy rain will be a bigger factor.

Storms and showers clear around dinner time Saturday and then temperatures crash into the low 70's by Sunday.

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