It has certainly felt like fall over the last 48 hours or so, with high temperatures in the 70's and overnight temperatures in the 50's. In fact, Freeport and Rochelle bottomed out at 49° Monday morning! A return to highs in the 80's with higher humidity is expected by Tuesday. A cold front will also be a part of that equation on Wednesday. The front will be the focus of scattered rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday to our west, and on Wednesday here locally. The threat is there for some strong to severe weather as well. The image above shows the threat for severe weather on Tuesday.
The next image shows the severe weather threat as we head into Wednesday. Per the Storm Prediction Center, some stronger storms are possible. However, a widespread severe weather event is not anticipated. The latest forecast models don't suggest overly impressive severe weather parameters. Nonetheless, due to the nature of the cold front and the variables that will be in place, a marginal risk for a strong to severe storm exists. Rainfall totals may exceed one inch in many spots by the time the rain concludes late Wednesday.
Totals may shape up to look like what our FutureCast model is suggesting. That could lead to isolated bouts of flash flooding, but the overall flood threat is not all that high. Overall, scattered rain and storms are anticipated to arrive late Tuesday night and remain in the forecast through the vast majority of the day Wednesday. By Thursday we are looking dry with highs in the lower 80's!