Sunday, October 23, 2016

A Warm November Ahead?

More than 3/4 of the days in October have been above the normal high for this month, and on average the actual high has been 5 degrees above normal - quite a departure. 

The Climate Prediction Center has been forecasting for a while now that our Autumn would be warm - and it is proving out.  They just released an update to their prediction for November and it looks like the trend will continue.  Based on the update, there is a 50% chance that our temperatures will trend above normal, while areas to our Northwest have a little less chance.  While these long term predictions can be wrong, they do indicate a general trend and are based on data gathered over many years.  

Although the fall is predicted to continue to run warm, we may see a shift in the trend as we head into December.  The current 3 month outlook for November, December and January shows a trend toward normal temperatures, or equal chances for above or below normal actual readings.  NOAA also re-issued a watch for a La Nina (cooler sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean) to develop (a 70% chance) and also stated that there is a 55% chance those conditions will persist through the entire winter.  That normally means colder and wetter conditions for the Midwest.

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