Sunday, October 23, 2016
A Warm November Ahead?
The Climate Prediction Center has been forecasting for a while now that our Autumn would be warm - and it is proving out. They just released an update to their prediction for November and it looks like the trend will continue. Based on the update, there is a 50% chance that our temperatures will trend above normal, while areas to our Northwest have a little less chance. While these long term predictions can be wrong, they do indicate a general trend and are based on data gathered over many years.
Although the fall is predicted to continue to run warm, we may see a shift in the trend as we head into December. The current 3 month outlook for November, December and January shows a trend toward normal temperatures, or equal chances for above or below normal actual readings. NOAA also re-issued a watch for a La Nina (cooler sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean) to develop (a 70% chance) and also stated that there is a 55% chance those conditions will persist through the entire winter. That normally means colder and wetter conditions for the Midwest.