Monday, October 3, 2016

Severe Weather Threatens Area

A pattern more reminiscent of spring or summer is going to exist this week across the central portion of the country. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70's locally, with 80's to our west. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday from Texas to Minnesota. And, we will see strong, southerly winds during the middle of the week in the Stateline. This all goes to show that Mother Nature truly does not abide by the rules. But will the severe weather impact us locally? The Storm Prediction Center tends to think no. The greatest threat for severe weather this week will occur on Tuesday across portions of the Central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center already has an "Enhanced Risk" of severe weather for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. All severe weather modes -- damaging winds, large hail, heavy rainfall, and tornadoes -- are expected.
By Wednesday, the severe weather threat will be less impressive. However, severe weather is still expected from northern Oklahoma to as far northeast as northwestern Illinois. A round of rain showers and possibly a few storms is likely from the late morning into the mid-afternoon on Wednesday, but confidence is very high that the severe threat remains to our southwest. Then, by Thursday, the severe weather threat edges slightly to the southwest. Again, the area highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center does not include the Stateline, but that does not mean a strong storm isn't possible. The chances of seeing one, though, are very low.
The ingredients for severe weather will be in place in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin on Thursday, but there does not appear to be sufficient lift in place to support storm development. In other words, if we had a more efficient lifting mechanism in place to fuel storm development, they could become strong to severe. But, without much in the way of a lifting mechanism, the rain and storm coverage doesn't look too impressive Thursday. Therefore, our severe weather threat looks quite low. Thursday night into Friday will feature a better chance of rain and storms, but due to the nocturnal nature of that activity, the threat for severe weather again looks quite low.

No comments:

Post a Comment