Thursday, October 13, 2016

Dry and Cool, Turning Warmer and Wet

We get to enjoy a few days with a fall feel, and dry skies along with it. Dominating high pressure and a trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere are responsible for this colder than average shot of air. That trough though is already pivoting east, and despite another cold start tomorrow morning with potential again for frost, temperatures Friday will rebound quickly back to average.

The pattern turns a bit more active into next week, with a few scattered rain chances in the forecast. However, it will depend a lot on the position of the jet stream across the country. Right now, this looks to be centered close to the Canadian border, which would keep a lot of the activity north of us. It would also support temperatures warming well above average. Temperatures by the start of next week could make it into the upper 70's before a cold front by the middle of the week drops temperatures closer to average.

We can also expect showers and storms to be possible Saturday night into Sunday. This arrives with a shortwave in the jet that will be moving close to the Canadian border, and it's trailing cold front. Before the front arrives, temperatures on Saturday will warm into the low 70's. But, if we can get the moisture to lag a bit that would keep the clouds at bay. If we get more sunshine, temperatures would have the ability to warm into the upper 70's.

That front then lifts back north through Sunday. There is a somewhat smaller chance for storms through Sunday, but rain is the most likely Saturday evening.  The weekend doesn't look to be a total washout with most of Saturday dry and then smaller scattered chances by Sunday.

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