With as warm and humid of a day it has been, we have remained remarkably dry. This despite a lot of uncapped instability, or storm energy, sitting overhead, fueled by the humidity at the surface. Usually, with an uncapped environment, you would see several storms develop using up all of this fuel.
But moisture and instability are just two ingredients for storm development. Storms also need something to jumpstart the process with a boundary or lifting mechanism along with wind shear to keeps the storms going. We do not have strong lift or shear right now, which is why we have remained dry so far Saturday evening.
But an outflow boundary/weak frontal boundary is sitting nearby with all that instability. That boundary may provide just enough of a trigger to get some isolated thunderstorm development between now and 12AM. Any storm that fully develops may pose a risk for gusty winds and some small hail, but the severe threat is not very high.
Slightly higher coverage of showers and storms may be possible after 12AM, with isolated to scattered activity carrying over into Sunday morning. The severe threat does not appear to be very high with the overnight storms, either. A large majority of the area will likely remain dry through at least most of the night.
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