Friday, May 15, 2026

Few strong to severe storms possible Friday night

 [2:00AM] Round 1 of storms is now exiting the area, leaving some gusty outflow winds (30-40 mph) in its wake. Round 2 is developing in Eastern Iowa and will move toward the Stateline after 4AM. While widespread severe weather is not expected behind round 1's outflow, some isolated pockets of stronger thunderstorm winds may be possible toward daybreak.

[1:30AM] Along and behind the outflow boundary from the storms, winds have been gusting near 25-35 mph in some spots. While it may remain breezy through the night, the severe weather threat is ending for our Western Counties.

[1:25AM] While not severe, this storm in Central Boone County has perked up a little and may be capable of producing penny to nickel sized hail as it moves Northeast at around 40-45 mph. Poplar Grove, Capron, Chemung, and Harvard may experience some hail with this storm.

[1:15AM] This storm centered over West Rockford has been able to produce at least pea sized hail and very heavy rain over short bursts. Storm is not severe at this time, but is moving Northeast at around 45 mph.

[1:00AM] The Monroe airport measured a wind gust of 47 mph as storms passed through. A severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 1:30AM for Green and Rock Counties with 60 mph wind gusts possible.

[12:25AM] A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Green and Western Rock Counties in Southern Wisconsin until 1:30AM. These storms are capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts and penny sized hail as they move East at 60 mph. A tornado is also possible, but not imminent at this time.

[12:15AM UPDATE] Storms have moved into SW Wisconsin with a few areas of rotation and associated tornado warnings. Storms are generally moving East at around 30 mph. Additional cells have begun producing lightning in NW Illinois in a more isolated fashion. Weakening trends will continue with Eastward extent, but it is unclear how quickly they will weaken. Right now, the highest chance for anything severe over the next few hours is primarily across Southern Wisconsin, but far Northern Illinois may get clipped by a strong storm or two. Highest threats will remain with damaging wind gusts, followed by very isolated spin-up tornadoes, then small hail.

[10:45PM UPDATE] A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for Northwestern parts of the Stateline until 5AM Saturday. Storms out in Iowa have been holding together to an extent as they move East with a few severe warnings along the line. Primary threats would be damaging wind gusts and some instances of small hail. Our primary storm window will be through 2-3AM, exiting East after 3-4AM.

Scattered storms have developed in Iowa with several severe thunderstorm warnings. This line of storms will continue to progress Eastward, reaching NW Illinois after 10-11PM. Storms will be on a weakening trend but could still produce some damaging wind gusts and hail.

The current late evening SPC outlook has expanded the Level 2/5 Slight risk further East across a large portion of the Stateline now. Storms will be possible from 11PM-3AM, so be sure to have ways to get warnings should any be issued that late!

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