If you are wondering whether or not we have seen a lot of sun and dry weather this fall, you are probably not alone. We have not seen many days with precipitation since fall officially began in late September. Therefore, the rainfall department is lacking. We are over 1.25" below normal since the first of October. That is just one factor in establishing an elevated fire risk. The dry weather has led to abnormally dry soils, which will support the spread of fires on Sunday afternoon. In addition, there will be very low relative humidity values in place across the area Sunday. That means there will be a lack of moisture in place, which means fires will have an easier time forming and maintaining themselves.
Add gusty southwesterly winds to the equation and you get a day featuring an elevated risk of fires. There are no fire weather alerts in effect, but there doesn't need to be one in place for fires to burn. It is highly discouraged to engage in any outdoor burning on Sunday. Additionally, throwing cigarette butts outside could spark a fire due to the very dry conditions that will be in place. There is not a legitimate rain threat in the forecast until Friday. That will be associated with a very strong area of low pressure and associated cold frontal boundary. Rain and even thunderstorms seem possible Friday morning through Saturday morning.
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