Sunday, November 13, 2016

Second Warmest Start to November

The warmest first two weeks (roughly) of November occurred in 1964 when the average temperature was 52.5 degrees.

This year, the first 13 days have averaged a temperature of 51.9 degrees, putting the start of November 2016 as the second warmest start to the month since records began in the early 1900's.  The recent cold nights have brought us down a little, but afternoon highs continue to run at least 10 degrees above average.  And those numbers will continue to grow this upcoming week with highs pushing the mid-60's by Thursday.

A couple of weak cool fronts (basically wind shift lines) will sweep down the western Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday.  All that will do for us is bring us a little more cloud cover.  By Wednesday, a large storm system will begin to take shape out west forcing a strong ridge of high pressure to build over the center of the country.  Temperatures underneath the ridge will warm into the 60's and 70's, possibly near records for many.  Overnight lows will also be mild with mornings starting off in the middle to upper 40's and low 50's.

By Friday afternoon a strong cold front, associated with a very strong low pressure system, will move through Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin. This front will bring with it a few showers and possibly a couple isolated thunderstorms.  But behind the front will be the coldest air we've felt this season.  Now before you get worried, let's put this into perspective.  Our temperatures have been well above average.  So when we say it's the 'coldest air of the season' we're not talking bitter cold because all this air mass will do is push us back down closer to average for highs - in the low 40's and overnight lows in the 20's.  It will feel cold compared to what we're used to, but in reality it's where we should be.  Highs Saturday, Sunday and possibly Monday of next week will be down in the 40's.  Following this surge of cold temperatures look to moderate slightly closer towards Thanksgiving.

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