Could we see a repeat of last winter?

The Climate Prediction Center issued a La Nina Watch last Thursday.  Now, you may be thinking to yourself just what exactly does that means.  Basically ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through this fall, but after that some of the models are either keeping those neutral conditions or redeveloping La Nina conditions.

This past winter is one that I'm sure many won't forget with the cold and snow (of course who could forget the blizzard in February).  Last fall and all throughout the winter and even early spring we were in what was considered a high end moderate La Nina.  This is what lead to the huge tornado outbreaks, the cold and snow in the northern Plains and the extreme drought across south.  While we've actually come out of La Nina (sea surface temperatures have warmed in the equatorial Pacific to near average - see graphic to the left) there are some long-term models pointing to another possible La Nina, just not as strong.  Sea temperature anomalies have continued to weaken which would reflect the strengthening of the below-average temperatures in the east-central Pacific Ocean.  Also, atmospheric conditions still reflect aspects of La Nina - like conditions.

Historically, there is a tendency for significant wintertime La Nina episodes to be followed by relatively weaker La Nina episodes the following winter.  Does this mean that we will see record breaking severe weather and snowfall across the U.S. again?  While I don't think it will be as severe as this past winter, it's possible that an above average snow could fall and there could be a few more late season severe weather events.