Friday afternoon update - Watching the storms this weekend/early next week

A stationary front lies just to the south of the Stateline and while a slight shift back north is possible as a weak upper level low moves out of Iowa and into northern Illinois, the front will likely remain just  to the south through the afternoon.  South of the front instability has been building across central and southern Illinois and back through central Iowa.  Showers and thunderstorms will develop in central Iowa and central Illinois later this afternoon with a few scattered storms likely in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin.  Severe weather isn't anticipated, however, storms could produce heavy rain - especially storms that build to the immediate south and west.  Once the sun sets tonight the storm activity will begin to decrease. 

The stationary front will remain to the south of us Saturday with the focus for severe weather across parts of Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and Minnesota.  The threat for severe weather will then shift further east on Sunday from the Plains to the Midwest (including N. IL and S. WI) late in the afternoon.  Low pressure will move slowly through the Plains pulling the warm front northward back into N. IL and S. WI.  Instability will begin to build along with the humidity as moisture from the Gulf lifts north.  Right now, it looks like the greatest threat for severe weather will be across southern Iowa, Missouri, eastern Kansas and Oklahoma.  However, Illinois and Wisconsin are highlighted within the slight risk for Sunday.  The severe threat shifts slightly further southwest Monday and Tuesday.  If we can continue to experience enough instability early next week then the possibility of strong storms will exist as well.