Tuesday afternoon weather update

A few light showers have popped up on radar late this morning right around Ridott, Winnebago, Pecatonica and Rockford.  Other than maybe a brief shower or sprinkle much of the afternoon will remain dry.  Skies have remained cloudy through the morning with only a few breaks in the clouds occurring from time to time.  Instability has been building south of the Stateline where a little more warmth and sunshine have occurred - although there has been a slight increase in instability further north into northern Illinois.

A warm front sits right along the Wisconsin/Illinois border as of Noon with temperatures rising into the low 70s and dew points in the low 60s.  Other than the showers passing through right now, skies will likely remain dry for the next few hours.  There is an upper level disturbance moving through southern Minnesota with dry air moving into Iowa and another upper level disturbance moving into central Kansas.  The disturbance in Minnesota will likely keep the showers to the north in

Wisconsin going through the afternoon, but it's the disturbance in Kansas we'll be watching closely this afternoon as it moves northeast.  There have already been a few showers/storms developing ahead of that low and just to the south of Kansas City, MO.  Winds within the Jetstream would take any storms that develop in northern Missouri and lift/expand them further east and northeast following the main flow in the upper atmosphere.   

Here is a snap-shot of the 'future' radar from one of our short-term models (HRRR) at 6pm this evening.  Expected thunderstorms in northern Missouri later today will begin to lift northeast into west-central Illinois by mid-afternoon and into Illinois around 5pm/6pm.  The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin under a slight risk for severe weather today with the greatest risks remaining wind and hail.  With the warm front in close proximity any storms that do develop may have to be watched for signs of rotation closer to the warm front.  Eyes will be watching to the southwest to see exactly what develops in Missouri and southern Iowa because that will determine what we see later today.  Right now it looks like things should remain quiet until possible after 4pm.