Skies have cleared in the wake of showers that passed through early Wednesday morning. The clearing skies combined with the abundant atmospheric moisture will cause instability to increase through late morning and afternoon. Thunderstorms have been 'bubbling' in parts of southwest Iowa and eastern Nebraska. While those storms will gradually shift east with time, the general storm motion is more north and northeast. Once again our eyes will be watching southern Iowa and northern Missouri this afternoon for any additional storm development ahead of a weak upper level disturbance moving out of Kansas.
The surface warm front remains north in Wisconsin but there is also a weak frontal boundary in place across northern Illinois. As the upper level disturbance moves closer to the boundary it may become the focus for isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Areas in northwest Illinois and southwest Wisconsin remain under a slight risk for strong to severe thunderstorms. This threat extends through the upper Midwest and Plains.
Daytime heating this afternoon will allow the cumulus clouds forming now to grow in height by mid to late afternoon. The image on the left is the RPM futurecast radar at 3pm and shows thunderstorms developing south of Rockford and lifting north. If this scenario were to actually occur hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. Also, any thunderstorms that do form would be very efficient at producing heavy rainfall.
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