Friday morning weather update

 

The sun comes on Friday morning with a little more cloud cover overhead. This has led to a beautiful sunrise across the region! With filtered sunshine expected Friday afternoon temperatures will warm into the upper 70s, close to 80 degrees.

Ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Plains will remain well west of the region thanks to high pressure still centered over the Great Lakes. As the high departs us to east Friday evening moisture
will slowly begin to increase. The increasing moisture will eventually lead to showers overspreading northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Saturday morning.

Low pressure moving across central Illinois Saturday will keep the highest thunderstorm chances centered to the south, but an embedded rumble of thunder or two can't be ruled out locally. Rainfall totals will range from 0.25-0.75 inches, with higher totals to the south.

The rain looks to last through Saturday afternoon before tapering off Saturday evening. As skies slowly begin to clear Saturday night, areas of fog will likely with pockets of dense fog Sunday morning. Once the fog lifts skies will turn partly cloudy with afternoon temperatures warming into the low 80s. An isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out Sunday afternoon.

Thursday morning weather update

 

If you enjoyed the weather Wednesday, you're going to really enjoy what we have in store for Thursday! It's a little bit of a cooler start this morning under clear skies and light winds. There is some fog in some of the low-lying areas, but it shouldn't cause too much of an issue on the commute this morning.

As high pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes skies will stay mostly sunny Thursday afternoon. High temperatures will warm into the mid-70s, with Rockford's high reaching 76. The drier air mass will help keep moisture at bay, with thunderstorms remaining over the Plains.

By Friday evening high pressure will be centered over Ohio with the return of southerly winds locally. This will slowly bring in more moisture through Friday night, eventually leading to rain showers overnight.

Clouds will gradually increase throughout the day Friday but that shouldn't prevent temperatures from warming close to 80 degrees! Winds will pick up a bit Friday night ahead of low pressure that'll move through central Illinois early Saturday. Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are likely during that time, ending by the time we get into Saturday afternoon. Temperatures Saturday will reach the low to mid 70s, warming into the low 80s by Sunday.   

Wednesday morning weather update

 

Low pressure that brought scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon will continue to depart us to the east, leaving mostly sunny skies for the start of Wednesday. Temperatures under the clearing sky have fallen into the upper 40s and low 50s but should warm quickly through the morning.

Winds will remain light from the north Wednesday afternoon with highs warming into the upper 60s and low 70s. Rockford's forecast high will reach 71 degrees. A little moisture lingering in the atmosphere, combined with a little instability, will cause fair weather cumulus clouds to develop late morning and early afternoon turning skies partly cloudy.

Winds remain light tonight with overnight lows falling into the low to mid 40s. Patchy fog may develop with a light wind. Drier air for Thursday will lead to mostly sunny skies and temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s. Dry weather will continue Friday with the next chance for rain returning Friday night.

Rock County tornadoes

 

The Milwaukee National Weather Service was out in southern Wisconsin Monday conducting damage surveys from the severe storms that moved through Sunday evening.

They concluded that an EF-0 tornado formed 5 miles northwest of Janesville, WI at 5:00pm, traveling northeast towards Milton, WI before lifting at 5:21pm. It was on the ground for just a little over 12 miles and was 50 yards wide. According to the National Weather Service the tornado went through the High School area in Milton, as well as the north-central part of town. Damage was done mostly to trees, but a bleacher section of a baseball field was lofted over a fence at the high school.

The second tornado, also an EF-0 with peak wind gusts of 80 mph, touched down 4 miles east/northeast of Janesville at 5:15pm and traveled northeast before lifting southeast of Fort Atkinson, WI. This tornado was on the ground for 15 miles and was 50 yards wide. Its path took it through mostly rural locations where it caused tree damage.

Storm chances return Tuesday afternoon

 

Similar to Monday, Tuesday will feature a chance for scattered thunderstorms with the heating of the day late in the afternoon and evening.

Cloud cover continues to clear us to the east this morning with temperatures falling into the low 50s. It's a cool start this morning with a lighter wind, but the northwest breeze will increase during the afternoon, gusting around 25 mph. Another low-pressure system moving in from the northwest will bring with it scattered thunderstorms for the late afternoon and evening. While an isolated shower or two can't be ruled out early in the afternoon, thunderstorm coverage should increase after 5pm.

Instability won't be quite as high as it was Monday afternoon but colder temperatures aloft with the incoming low will cause the air mass to quickly rise from the surface. This will help generate some of the thunderstorms, even without the presence of higher instability. This type of low is known as a 'cold core low'.

The strongest storms will be capable of producing penny to quarter sized hail, along with wind gusts to 60 mph. This is why the Storm Prediction Center has placed southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois under a marginal risk for isolated severe storms Tuesday. Remember, when you see lightning or hear thunder you need to head indoors!

Storm coverage will come to an end after sunset. Skies will remain partly cloudy with overnight lows falling into the low 50s.   

Sunday morning weather update

 

9:30pm Update: A line of thunderstorms continues to move through Ogle and Lee counties this morning, producing mostly heavy rainfall. Some of the stronger cores will be capable of small hail, along with frequent lightning and a stronger wind gust or two. These storms are currently moving to the northeast around 25-30 mph.

Non-severe thunderstorms will continue to move across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Sunday morning. Biggest threats with the morning activity will be heavier downpours and lightning. A wind gust 30-40 mph will be possible but severe weather is not expected this morning. This scattered activity will last through lunchtime (12pm/1pm).

As the morning thunderstorms move out, skies may try to clear some through mid-afternoon. A warm front displaced well south of the region will make a slow trek back north, but likely fall shy of reaching the Stateline. This will be a key player in thunderstorms redeveloping locally later this afternoon and evening.

There does remain a risk for a few stronger to severe storms this afternoon, but the strength of the storms depends on just how much our atmosphere is able to destabilize later today. With some clearing possible, we could see some isolated thunderstorm activity try to develop around 3pm/4pm. The greatest threat for any significant severe weather will remain further downstate where better instability and wind shear will take place.

If we do see thunderstorms redevelop this afternoon our greatest threats would be damaging winds and hail, with an isolated tornado risk. Again, any storm development later today will depend on how fast our atmosphere is able to recover following the storms this morning. There are some indications that at least some destabilization will occur.

If you're planning on being out and about at any point during the day, make sure you are checking

the weather and radar frequently. Be ready to head indoors/seek shelter should any storms move through this afternoon. The storm threat would then decrease after sunset.   

Pleasant, sun-filled start to Memorial Day weekend

Severe weather once again being the main headline across the Midwest as a strong line of storms pushes across Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois. 

Wind damage/significant wind reports stretch from N. Kansas to Lake Michigan, which classifies this late-week severe event as a derecho. There was also a lot of heavy rainfall and gusty winds with the second round Friday afternoon/evening.

Fortunately, sunnier times make a brief return as high pressure bubbles up in between Friday's storm system and the one slated for Sunday. This leaves us with A TON of beautiful sunshine, with highs comfortably topping out in in the upper 70s. 

Clouds will slowly increase into Sunday as a round of showers and storms approaches from the west. This makes tomorrow a day where you'll want to ditch the sunglasses and have your umbrella on hand. 

After a quiet Saturday night, rain and evening storm chances increase by mid-morning Sunday. This will mainly feature non-severe storms that will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

In a similar fashion to Friday, a second round is in the works for Sunday afternoon and evening. This round does feature the low potential for strong to severe storms, hence why most of the Stateline has been placed under level 1 Marginal Risk. 

Those along and south of I-88 are closer to the warm front, thus seeing a slightly higher chance for severe potential. For that, they have been placed under a level 2 slight risk. Hazards locally include damaging winds, large hail, and heavy downpours. The tornado threat is very low and in fact much higher south of I-80. Keep the radar close for Memorial Day as there will be enough moisture for a few passing showers. 

Thankfully, it won't be a washout! In even better news, next week is looking less active. Slim chance Tuesday then dry conditions settle in for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for northern Illinois

The National Weather Service has expanded the severe thunderstorm watch eastward to include all of N. Illinois and Green County in S. Wisconsin. This will be in place until 1PM.

Storms to the west will be posing a risk for damaging winds, mainly between 8AM-1PM.

Tracking two rounds of storms Friday, both bring severe potential

After a nice two day break from severe weather, the potential returns as we round out the work week. This time, we're not talking just one round, but two. For that, the Storm Prediction Center has all of N. Illinois and S. Wisconsin under a level 2 Slight Risk.

The first is currently progressing eastward across our neighboring corn-loving state to the west, resulting in a severe thunderstorm watch for those areas. 

 

As this line of storms approaches N. Illinois, it will be in a state of weakening, though may still pose a risk for damaging straight-line winds as it moves through NW. Illinois and S. Wisconsin. Timing for the first round is from 8-9AM to 1PM. 

Forecast models are then hinting at redevelopment in E. Iowa as the associated cold front approaches. If the atmosphere is able to destabilize quickly, a secondary round of strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon into the early evening. 

Primary concern will once again be damaging winds, followed by a tornado or two. Now, the tornado threat may become a bit higher if the morning activity is able to throw out an outflow boundary. 

This will enhance the low-level shear or spin in the atmosphere, further increasing the potential for a few tornadoes. Similar to Monday and Tuesday, be keep tabs on radar as well as having multiple ways to get watches and warnings.

Once the cold front is through, conditions will quiet down overnight into Saturday. This will pave the way for a less active start to Memorial Day weekend with highs peaking in the upper 70s. 

Storm chances are fast to return by Sunday as a strong low pressure system zips into Minnesota/Wisconsin from the central plains. As of this morning, the severe threat is highest near and south of the warm front in west-central and S. Illinois. With that being said, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the region under a level 1 Marginal Risk for severe weather. Something to monitor!

Thunderstorms return for Memorial Day weekend

 

Thursday was an absolutely beautiful afternoon with plenty of sunshine and temperatures warming into the upper 70s and low 80s. While there were a few isolated storms across central Wisconsin this afternoon our skies locally remained clear and will stay clear through the night. Overnight temperatures will dip into the mid and upper 50s, rising back close to 80 degrees Friday.

A couple things we need to note and monitor for Friday will be the rise in humidity as dew point temperatures warm back into the 60s. This could help sustain thunderstorms that'll be moving in from the west. The storms are likely to remain west of the Mississippi River through sunrise, shifting east mid to late morning.

There are still some questions regarding whether or not the storms will weaken some as they move into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Friday morning. If the storms don't move in until later in the morning there may be enough instability that builds up to allow the risk for severe storms to increase through early afternoon before shifting east towards Chicago later in the day.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin under a slight risk for severe storms Friday. Biggest threats would be damaging wind gusts. If, however, the storms weaken some through the morning a few outflow boundaries left over could interact with a northward shifting warm front, slightly increasing the potential for some low-topped supercells which could produce brief tornadoes.

Friday night will be dry as high pressure moves in from the west. This will pave the way for a fairly decent Saturday with temperatures warming into the mid and upper 70s.

Another system moving in from the west and southwest late Saturday night will increase the chance for some heavy rain producing thunderstorms Sunday morning. Another warm front will be pulled into northern Illinois coming

very close to the I-80 and I-88 corridors. Low pressure moving across northern Illinois during the afternoon will bring a few severe storms across the central part of the state. The highest risks right now will be across southern Illinois. It's possible the severe threat could shift north near the state line, especially if the warm front lifts further north as well. Sunday will also be a day to monitor this weekend.

Cooler air will filter in behind the low for Monday which will give us scattered rain showers and temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s.  

Weather turns quiet following Tuesday's severe weather outbreak

This very active spring continues as yet another severe weather outbreak transpired across the lower 48's midsection Tuesday. 

Storm reports range from multiple violent and destructive tornadoes in Iowa to damaging winds up to 80-90 mph here in the Stateline. Again, if there is any damage from yesterday's storms in your neck of the woods, send pictures. Us on-air meteorologists and those who work at the National Weather Service would very much appreciate the help!

Thankfully, clean up will be easy the next few days as our weather pattern turns more quiet. High pressure sliding south-southeast of the region will help bring sunny skies back to the Stateline.

The only difference, today features more of a breeze with winds out of the west. Highs because of Tuesday's potent cold front will trend cooler, in the low 70s today and then in the upper 70s. 

High temperatures climb back into the low 80 Friday, though it does come with a price tag. Our next storm system will be progressing across the northern plains, landing in Minnesota by the afternoon.

This will help bring a cold front in, increasing storm chances to round out the work week. The Storm Prediction Center placed the entire region under a level 1 Marginal Risk, with gusty winds and hail being the primary concerns.

Tuesday evening severe weather update

 

10:10pm Update: A severe thunderstorm warning was just issued for Green and Rock counties until 11pm. This storm was located north of Cedarville and moving northeast at 55 mph. Wind gusts of 60 mph and nickel sized hail will be possible.

A new severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Stephenson County until 10:45pm. This storm was located just outside of Freeport, moving northeast at 50 mph. Wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter sized hail will be possible with this storm as it moves through.

Additional thunderstorms have developed to the southwest and there still remain at least an isolated severe threat through Midnight. Biggest impacts from any storms that do move through will be strong wind gusts, as well as nickel to quarter sized hail.

Tornado Watch issued for some Tuesday afternoon

 

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for Green, Rock, and Walworth counties until Midnight. Isolated severe storms have moved into southwest Wisconsin and will continue to move to the northeast late this afternoon. These will not impact our region in the short-term.

While there still remains an isolated thunderstorm risk through the evening, we continue to closely monitor the storms moving across central Iowa and northern Missouri. This is where our storm threat will come from later this evening. Remember, the storm window is from 6pm to 10pm Tuesday evening.

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for a portion of northwest Illinois Tuesday afternoon, lasting until 9pm. This watch includes the following counties: Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside.

Storms have been slowly developing to our north and west this afternoon with a few of the storms quickly turning severe. Temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s area wide, with the low 80s north in Wisconsin. Dew point temperatures have also increased, rising into the low to mid 60s.

An isolated storm or two cannot be completely ruled out through the afternoon, but it does appear that our main window for severe storms will occur later in the evening. This will be with the storms that are starting to develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

These are expected to quickly turn severe as they move across Iowa. The tornado watch that is currently in effect is a PDS tornado watch - a Particularly Dangerous Situation. This means that the environment west of the Mississippi River is becoming very unstable and will allow storms to quickly evolve and turn severe, producing not only large hail and damaging wind gusts, but also a few intense, long-tracked tornadoes. The highest risk for this does appear to be in Iowa, but we'll be monitoring very closely any storms that try to cross over the Mississippi River.

It still does appear that our window for severe storms will occur later in the evening, moving from west to east as the storms in Iowa evolve into more of a line of storms. This would continue to bring the damaging threat locally after 6pm/7pm, as well as an isolated tornado risk. There are still some questions as to whether or not we see a damaging wind threat along the entire line of storms this evening, or a portion of the line. But severe storms will occur in our viewing area as we near sunset. It's likely we will see watches extended further east as we near evening. Make sure you are paying attention to the weather throughout the day.  

Significant severe weather on the table Tuesday afternoon and evening

Monday's 80° weather did come with the first of two opportunities for the Stateline to see strong to severe thunderstorms this week. 

All that came from it however was one severe thunderstorm warning as storms didn't get going until they were practically over Lake Michigan. The second opportunity could arrive in multiple waves, with the more significant threat holding off until the late afternoon - evening hours. 

In their latest severe outlook for today, the Storm Prediction Center expanded the level 4 Moderate Risk to include areas west of Rockford and Amboy. This leaves the rest of the region under a level 3 Enhanced Risk for severe weather. 

A wave of thunderstorms is currently passing to our west as we approach sunrise. This round will play a role in today's severe threat in two ways. 

The first, it may allow us to see a few isolated storms prior to midday. Hail would be the biggest concern. Secondly, this round may cast off what is called an outflow boundary, which if to interact with the warm front or any other boundaries, would heighten the severe threat for this afternoon. If that were to occur, damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes would be on the table. If not, then expect conditions to remain partly cloudy, muggy, and warm with high temperatures climbing close to the 90°  mark.

As previously mentioned, the highest threat would come during the hours of 6PM-10PM. This is when forecast models show a robust line of severe storms tracking in from the west, posing a risk for potentially significant damaging straight-line winds, an isolated tornado or two, and heavy rainfall. 

Before leaving the house this morning, be sure to think about your severe weather plans in case today's threat impacts your daily schedule. 

Ask yourself these questions... Where can you take shelter if a severe storm heads your way? What ways will you keep tuned to the forecast so you’re aware of any warnings? It's always wise to plan ahead of time so you don’t have to in the moment. 

Once storms move out, we can expect conditions to turn quiet but remain windy into our Wednesday. With a more westerly wind in place, highs will peak in the mid 70s. From there, highs will be on the up and up again, hitting the low 80s by Friday. 

Multiple rounds of storms, some severe, expected to sweep across northern Illinois

Mother nature gave us a beautiful and problem-free weekend as Saturday and Sunday featured sunshine with highs spread out in the 80s. 

This kind of summer-like warmth continues into the start of the new work week. However, it does come with a bit more humidity, allowing storm and even severe potential to make a quick return. 

Monday's will come in two rounds. One that is passing to our west and northwest as we speak, with chances lasting into sunrise. These have been sliding through in a non-severe fashion and will continue to do so as they move through S. Wisconsin. Timing of the second round seems to be from 10AM to 3-4PM. Now, it goes without saying that the severity of this round will all be dependent on how much atmospheric energy will be available. If storms are to meet severe criteria, it would be for damaging winds and large hail. Today's storm threat would diminish before sunset, leaving us quiet for the first half of the night.

In a similar fashion to today, Tuesday's potential also comes in two rounds. One early in the morning and another later in the evening. Storm mode would be in the form of a line or complex of storms, with the main question marks there being the inefficient timing outside of peak daytime heating.

 

 

The first round would arrive after midnight, with chances lasting into sunrise. Damaging winds and heavy rain would be the biggest concerns. Conditions quiet down from there, allowing temperatures and dew points to climb quickly. 

Highs for most will reach the upper 80s, with maybe a spot or two briefly touching the 90° mark. At the same time, storms firing to the west will congeal into a strong squall line, progressing east with time. 

If there are any outflow boundaries laying around from the morning round of storms, that would further out chances for afternoon severe storms. Otherwise, it's this line that will bring the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes during the evening and early overnight hours Tuesday. Again, all dependent on the amount of instability that builds up ahead of this potent line. But for tomorrow's heightened threat, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region under a level 3 of 5 enhanced risk for severe weather.

Any chance for strong to severe storms will come to a close after the associated cold front slides through. This will be sometime around midnight or the early morning hours Wednesday. 

The rest of Wednesday and all of Thursday remain quiet, with temperatures peaking in the 70s. It won't be until late Friday where rain and even thunderstorm chances return to the Stateline.

Heat continues Sunday afternoon

 

Temperatures Saturday afternoon felt more like mid to late July and August rather than mid-May as highs warmed into the mid and upper 80s! Rockford's high officially warmed to 88 degrees.

A cold front passed through the Stateline late Saturday night but with a dry air mass ahead of the front skies remained dry. Temperatures have been cooling slightly across northwest Illinois with readings right around 60 degrees Sunday morning, but with the sunshine expected Sunday afternoon temperatures should quickly warm. Afternoon highs are expected once again to reach the middle 80s. The record high for Sunday is 96 degrees set back in 1934, so still a bit to go before reaching that. However, temperatures Tuesday could, in some locations, hit 90 degrees if showers and thunderstorms hold off until late in the day.

While it'll be warm, perhaps hot, Sunday afternoon it shouldn't be overly humid. Dew point temperatures will remain in the 50s. A warm front passing through the Stateline Sunday night will not only bring with it a chance for an isolated storm or two overnight, but it'll also help bring back the summer-like humidity.

Dew point temperatures will quickly warm into the 60s, even mid-60s, Monday and Tuesday which will make it feel a little more humid during the afternoon. Another cold front Wednesday will bring both temperatures and humidity levels down, but afternoon highs will still remain above average.   

Summer-like for the weekend with severe storms possible late Tuesday

Yesterday's summer-like weather was the perfect way to kick off the Rockford's City Market season. Under sun-filled skies, Rockford officially peaked at 82°, marking the 5th 80° day of 2024. 

All I have to say is, if you loved yesterday's weather, today features just as much sunshine and even warmer afternoon highs. In fact, today is going to be the warmest day of the year as temperatures aim to peak in the mid to upper 80s. 

Perfect weather for golf outings and to fire up the barbecue. If you have any outdoor plans, it will be important to have your sunglasses as well as apply sunscreen from time to time. 

A weak cold front will then sweep through overnight, adding a few more clouds to our sky. There may be just enough moisture and lift for a spotty shower or sprinkle. For the most part, forecast models keep conditions dry as this frontal boundary passes through, with cloud cover decreasing into daybreak Sunday. Overnight lows will trend a bit warmer than this morning, landing in the low 60s. 

Despite northeasterly flow being in place, Sunday's warmer base will be enough for highs to peak in the mid to upper 80s once again. Sunday features a few more clouds, and a slim chance for an afternoon shower or storm. Thankfully, the highest storm threat will be confined to the central plains! 

We will however have to monitor the potential for significant severe weather Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. In their early morning update, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded a good portion of the region to a 30% severe risk, which is equivalent to a level 3 of 5 enhanced risk. 

From what I gathered, storms will fire out west as a strong low pressure system slides into southern Minnesota. With time, these storms will track east, landing in the Stateline sometime late in the afternoon into the evening, posing a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. For now, check the forecast frequently and make sure you and your family review your severe weather plan. The finer details about Tuesday's severe threat should come about Sunday night into Monday. Storm chances will continue into Wednesday as the associated cold front passes through. This cold front will also mark the end to this summer-like stretch, bringing high temperatures back into the low 70s.