Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Severe storms possible during Wednesday's morning commute

A strong line of showers and thunderstorms continues to truck through E. Iowa this morning. 

Although in a weaker state, we will have to monitor this line during the morning commute hours as it still may pose a risk for damaging winds. Heavy rainfall and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will also be on the table. The window for strong to severe storms will be from roughly 5am to 9am. 

Behind this morning's round, we should begin to see a quick clearing trend in cloud cover. This would help the atmosphere quickly recharge, which then would increase our chances for another round of scattered storms to develop for the afternoon. 

However, how much destabilization occurs is still a bit of a question mark. If enough clearing can occur fast enough, the second round could begin as early as midday. Strong winds will once again be a threat as well as large hail and even an isolated tornado. 

Expectation is for them to quickly grow, likely becoming severe, as they move east into Indiana and Ohio Tuesday afternoon and evening. 

This is where the greatest risk for severe storms is located, hence the level 3 Enhanced Risk. A strong storm or two may linger into the evening and early overnight hours before giving way to quiet skies by daybreak Wednesday morning. 

This active pattern carries on into Wednesday afternoon as the Stateline finds itself under another level 1 Marginal Risk. Mainly for damaging winds and large hail as a few thunderstorms will be on the table during the afternoon and evening.However, the highest risk will once again be located south and southeast of the region closer to the low and warm front!

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