It was a cold and breezy Saturday in the Stateline with highs only reaching the mid-20s after morning lows had us in the teens to start the morning. Similar chill will be expected tonight, with temperatures dropping near the low teens and wind chills again near or below zero through the night. Make sure to bundle up if you head out!
It won't get much better for Sunday afternoon, with almost a copy and paste forecast of Saturday. The morning starts out in the low teens with the afternoon only rising to the mid-20s. We should see some afternoon sunshine, but it won't help things feel any warmer with wind chills stuck in the single digits and teens throughout the day.
We do have one single day where temperatures will be back above the freezing mark. Wednesday, afternoon highs will reach the upper 30s with a strong breeze from the South along our next weather system. Unfortunately, that "warmth" won't last long with another sharp cool down to follow Wednesday night into Thursday.
The weather system in question will pass mainly to the Northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but we may see some light snow showers or flurries through that time as a little bit of moisture and forcing may be around to promote some precipitation. Barring any large shifts in the track, any accumulations will be limited during this time.
At 7PM Friday, Rockford's temperature was sitting at 19°. That was the first time since February that we saw a temperature below 20°, 274 days ago! We have seen some cold stretches since then, but nothing quite this cold. Safe to say winter is upon us!
It won't get much better tonight as evening temperatures continue to drop under a clear sky. The overnight low will reach near 11 degrees in Rockford, and we may even see a few spots flirt with the single digits. Wind chills will make it feel like closer to zero!
Those going downtown for Stroll on State will want those extra layers to keep warm! While we are dry with some sunshine early, it will be another cold day with highs only reaching the 20s. By the tree lighting at 6PM, we will be about 20° with wind chills near the single digits!
It won't get too much better through the early part of next week, with temperatures remaining solidly below freezing through at least Tuesday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 20s to near 30 Tuesday, while overnight lows will settle in the teens for a couple more days before starting to warm Tuesday night ahead of our next weather system that could bring some light snow.
After the passage of Thanksgiving, it's officially "Christmas season" as the year begins to wrap up and with it so are the daily temperatures. We seen this Thanksgiving be the coldest on record since 2014 with a high of only 29 degrees yesterday. Expect much of this to continue through this week and as we approach next weekend as cold and dry air continued to be funneled in from Canada!
Like previously mentioned, we were not able to crack the 30-degree mark here in Rockford but areas further south were able to! Many people's Thanksgivings were cold and windy which I'm sure made all the Thanksgiving football games even more interesting!
Over the next few days temperatures won't come close to the 30-degree mark as very cold air will be pushed in from Canada behind a low-pressure system. Temperatures into the overnight hours will be very cold as well as those will drop into the low teens. The good news though is that sunshine will be more plentiful than the last week as very dry air will allow for less cloud cover.
During this time, wind gusts will be approaching 25 to even 30 miles per hour today and tomorrow as well. With such cold temperatures and strong northerly winds this will plummet our wind chill as many locations will be approaching 0-degree wind chills and even below 0 wind chills Friday night.
Approaching next week though consistent upper-level winds will keep us a very similar pattern as we'll be right on the cusp of warmer temperatures thought the week. By Wednesday we may see temperatures climb back above freezing but once again after shifting upper-level winds will drop us back into the 20's as we approach next weekend.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and your families! It was a cold Thanksgiving across much of the country, but definitely so here in Rockford. Officially, our high temperature was only 29° today. Not only was this the coldest high since January, it was also the coldest Thanksgiving Day since 2014!
Heading into the late evening, we will see a few patches of snow flurries pinwheeling around a weak disturbance to our North. Any snow we do see will not accumulate on the ground given the lack of moisture near the surface. Temperatures will drop into the low 20s and upper teens tonight under otherwise overcast skies.
Heading into tomorrow, the chill will stick with us. Afternoon highs will only reach the mid-20s as flurries linger through 7/8AM. Clouds will stick around through the first half of the day, but we may begin clearing out by the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to drop from there, reaching the teens by 7/8PM.
The low temperatures will be paired with even lower wind chill values. A WNW wind gusting near 30 mph at times will make it feel more like the single digits Friday morning through much of the day. Only briefly during the afternoon will it feel warmer than 10° with wind chills factored in.
It doesn't get much warmer for the weekend, though we will see a bit more sunshine. Afternoon highs reach the mid-20s with overnight lows in the teens through Sunday. Both days will feature a WNW or NW breeze, making it feel colder. Temperatures will likely remain below freezing all the way through Tuesday.
Looking ahead the start of December, it will be a cooler pattern as continued Northwest flow aloft will continue. In patterns like this, you can often get weak disturbances, or clipper systems that move from NW to SE along the jet bringing pockets of snow showers.
We will see at least a couple of them within our general region next week. The windows for any snow are very unpredictable this far out in patterns like this, but brief windows of snow may be possible Saturday into Sunday, then again at times through the early part of next week. Snow accumulations should remain minor, but temperatures will be below freezing to allow some slick spots on roadways when it does snow.
This Northwesterly flow will also trap cold air to the Northeast and warmer air Southwest. We will be stuck on the cooler side of this strong jet stream, leaving us with below average temperatures for much of the next week.
The average high temperature for the next week or so is near 40°, but we will be running decidedly below that through the week. Highs will be in the 20s Friday through next Tuesday, more than 10° below average. Overnight lows will also drop into the teens for the first time since late February! This cold pattern will last at least through the middle of next week, but there is a brief shot of milder air in the Wed-Thurs time window with highs back in the 30s.
Clouds were quick to move in Tuesday evening ahead of moisture moving in from the Pacific. This had led to showers developing down state, stretching from central Plains all the way into Ohio. With temperatures still above freezing the precipitation has been falling as mostly rain. But as colder air moves in later tonight there should be a transition over to some snow showers along the northern edge from near Champaign to Indianapolis.
Further north skies have stayed dry, but cloudy. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 30s and low 40s with a light east wind. Winds will turn to the northwest Wednesday night, into Thursday, ushering in a colder air mass. With a few breaks in the cloud cover Thanksgiving Day temperatures will only warm to the mid-30s. Northwest winds will pick up as well, gusting 20-25 mph through the evening. A few flurries will also be possible during the evening as an upper-level disturbance moves across the Midwest and Great Lakes, but any accumulating snow will be tied to lake effect snow showers on the other side of Lake Michigan.
Drier air moving in Friday will help clear up some cloud cover, but temperatures will only warm into the mid-20s for highs with overnight lows in the teens. Northwest winds will gust upwards of 30 mph, pushing afternoon wind chills in the teens and overnight wind chills in the single digits. We may see a little more cloud cover return Saturday as a system passes to our south, but once again any snowfall associated with that should remain to our southwest.
Temperatures for Thanksgiving will be a touch cooler than the average 43 degrees, but not quite as cold as the 17-degree high recorded in 1930. The warmest Thanksgiving was all the back in 1914 with a high of 67. The wettest Thanksgiving was back in 2015 when just over an inch and a half of rain fell, and the snowiest occurred in 1968 with 4.5 inches being recorded. On average, measurable snowfall only occurs on Thanksgiving Day 12 percent of the time, with a TRACE of snow being recorded 30 percent of the time.
Though it was rather chilly day with highs failing to reach late-November standards, sunshine finally graced our skies Tuesday. In fact, Tuesday's 40% cloud cover is the lowest average at in Rockford been since November 11th (16 days ago).
Cloud cover returns quickly for Thanksgiving Eve, though a few peeks of sun cannot be ruled out from time to time.
Temperatures will end up near-average this afternoon,
reaching the low 40s.
Despite there being lots of clouds today, precipitation chances remain extremely low. Travel impacts will be highest downstate, closer to St. Louis and the portion of I-70 that runs into Indiana. Thanksgiving even looks quiet, though we keep a mostly cloudy sky and also see cooler temperatures.
A cold front surging in this evening will set the stage for the coldest air of the season to filter in. This will leave highs in the mid 30s for Thanksgiving, then down into the 20s for weekend. If participating in Black Friday or if you plan to attend Stroll On State this Saturday, BUNDLE UP in layers!
Temperatures were quite cold Tuesday morning as lows fell to the low 20s, with wind chills in the teens. But the sunshine, yes sunshine, helped to warm afternoon highs into the mid and upper 30s. Still a handful of degrees below average, but at least we had the sun! Unfortunately, cloud cover has moved back in which will leave skies cloudy for the rest of the evening.
Pacific moisture moving across the country may eventually lead to a light snow shower or two overnight but impacts from that should remain minimal. Under a cloudy sky temperatures will fall into the upper 20s, rising into the low 30s by daybreak Wednesday.
Low pressure passing well south of the Stateline will bring rain initially, followed by a rain/snow mix Wednesday afternoon and evening downstate. The precipitation will carry over into Indiana and Ohio, so if your travels take you in that direction you may run into some slowed travel. It looks like the immediate area will be too far north to really see much precipitation during the day Wednesday, but we'll hold on to a small chance for a flurry/light shower or two during the evening. Temperatures on Wednesday will be the warmest this week with highs in the low 40s.
Colder air will follow Thanksgiving Day as a second system moves across the Midwest. This will bring with it a few scattered flurries late in the day but will really work to ramp up the lake effect snow machine across the Great Lakes through the weekend. A second cold front follows Thursday night pushing temperatures into the 20s for lows, but highs on Friday only in the upper 20s! Northwest winds will ramp up through the afternoon, gusting around 25-30 mph. This will push wind chills during the afternoon in the teens.
Overnight lows Friday night will fall into the mid-teens with chills in the single digits Saturday morning. Afternoon highs will only warm into 20s through the weekend with overnight lows in the teens. Temperatures will remain cold through the start of December, a trend that may continue for the first week to two weeks of the month.
Monday was just another prime example of how difficult it is for northern Illinois to see sunshine during the "BER" months.
If fact, Monday was Rockford's 10th straight day where a mostly cloudy to overcast sky was observed (80% cloud cover or more). Fortunately, cloud cover decreased while you were sleeping as an area of high pressure dropped to our south.
Two things will result. Of course, we begin the day with a decent amount of sunshine. But also, temperatures will be rather cold out the door, sitting in the mid to upper 20s. Combine that with this morning's light westerly wind and you get wind chill values in the upper teens. BRRRR! Tuesday's chilly start will pave the way for a chilly afternoon as highs peak in the upper 30s. Compared to late-November standards, this lands 4° below average. All in all, have the thicker coat on from start to finish.
Clouds will begin to increase late in the day, turning mostly cloudy overnight. This is all in response to the same storm system that we've been keeping an eye on since the later half of last week. Now, forecast models continue to keep the brunt of the precipitation shield to the south of the I-80 corridor.
This leaves the highest impacts to holiday travel confined to portions of Missouri, downstate Illinois, central Indiana, and Ohio. Locally, I still wound up leaving as small chance for a scattered light mix Wednesday afternoon/evening.
On the backside of the low, northwest flow will set up across the western Great Lakes. This will pave the way for afternoon highs in the upper 30s but also a chance for flurries for Thanksgiving.
If you thought upper 30s was cold, even colder conditions settle in for the Black Friday, and Stroll on State Saturday. Afternoon highs tumble into the mid to upper 20s Friday, Saturday and even Sunday, with overnight lows falling into the teens.
Needless to say, you’ll want to be plenty bundled up if you’re heading out this weekend!
All eyes have been focused on the forecast over the last few days with hints of an incoming storm system that could possibly impact travel locally for the Thanksgiving holiday. And while some precipitation is possibly over the next few days for the Stateline, it does appear that highest impacts will occur outside of the viewing area during that time.
Other than the cold Monday night and Tuesday morning, travel impacts will be limited from a precipitation standpoint Tuesday. We'll actually see some sunshine before cloud cover moves back in Tuesday evening. Temperatures starting out in the 20s during the morning, and wind chills in the teens, will rise into the upper 30s during the afternoon. Northwest winds will remain breezy from time to time - gusting around 20 mph during the afternoon. Cloud cover will begin to increase Tuesday evening ahead of a few light snow flurries/showers that'll move into northern Illinois early Wednesday. This precipitation won't be much but could cause some slick conditions on some of the roads during the early morning commute.
Low pressure developing near Texas and Oklahoma Wednesday will travel east/northeast towards western Kentucky and Tennessee by early Thursday. This southern track will keep the bulk of precipitation in central and southern Illinois, with limited impactful precipitation in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. However, I'm still holding on to a small chance for a light mix during the afternoon and evening to account for any shift back north over the next day or two. Temperatures on Wednesday will briefly warm into the low 40s before falling into the 30s for Thanksgiving Day.
Winds turn back around to the northwest Thursday which may allow a few flurries or light snow showers to develop, especially during the afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will continue into Friday and Saturday with lake effect snow showers on the other side of Lake Michigan.
Monday was the 10th straight day where skies have been either mostly cloudy or cloudy across northern Illinois. Thankfully, this dreary trend breaks for a short time Monday night with a return of sunshine Tuesday. Unfortunately, this means temperatures will fall into the 20s overnight as wind chills dip into the teens! Bundle up.
Skies have been slowly clearing from west to east Monday evening with the back edge of the cloud cover now nearing the Mississippi River. This trend will continue through the night, leaving skies mostly clear as the sun rises Tuesday morning.
Northwest winds have also been increasing behind the front, sustained between 15-20 mph with gusts reaching 25-30 mph. The gusty winds will continue through the morning. This will cause morning wind chills to dip into the low to mid-teens for many Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly rise through the afternoon Tuesday, reaching the upper 30s ahead of increasing cloud cover Tuesday evening. A weak disturbance moving in late Tuesday night will bring a few snow flurries/snow showers to the region through Wednesday morning, which could be enough to create at least some slick conditions early Wednesday.
Typically once we get into the time of the year where months end in BER, cloudy days tend to outweigh the sunny ones. That's exactly what we are seeing this November as Rockford has observed 17 days with cloud cover at or above 80%.
Expect this trend to be no different as we approach the Thanksgiving holiday as we'll be tracking two storm systems, one for today and then on that could bring impacts to holiday travel Wednesday.
The first of two storm systems will track to our south as we approach mid-morning. In doing so, bringing the chance for a few rain light showers late this morning into the early afternoon.
Winds will pick up out of the northwest on the backside of this system, gusting up to 30 mph. This, along with today's cloud cover, with allow highs to be achieved early in the afternoon, with temps falling into the 30s by dinnertime.
Our best chance for sunshine this week will be Tuesday as high pressure briefly settles in. This will help clear out cloud cover overnight, enhancing the radiational cooling process. Temperatures will fall into the low 20s to start the day, then climb into the upper 30s by
Tuesday afternoon.
This is chilly for late November standards as average highs tend to be in the low 40s. A secondary system then sets it's eyes on the Stateline, possibly bringing travel impacts Wednesday. From this morning's batch of models data, there is still a lot of disagreement on how the upper-level waves will play a role. IF we see them interact with each other or "phase" with each other, that would give us a better shot at a wintry mix and travel impacts. IF they DON'T interact, the drier scenario will occur. Stay tune.
Cloud cover remained in place throughout much of Sunday, but a few brief breaks in the clouds allowed Rockford to warm to 51° around noon. Clouds will thicken back up through the evening, allowing our next rain chances to follow. Spotty showers and patches of drizzle may be possible after 8/9PM Sunday and last through much of the night. Total rainfall will remain less than a tenth of an inch for most.
Tomorrow will continue the gloomy weather with more clouds and patches of isolated showers during the morning and again early in the afternoon. Temperatures will be on the decline all day behind this weather system, dropping into the 20s by Tuesday morning with gradual clearing.
Looking ahead into the holiday travel week, there is a chance for some precipitation between Tuesday night and Thursday within the general region. We have to watch upstream for a few subtle weather features and how they evolve before arriving. The two waves we are watching are near Northern California and along the British Columbia/Alberta borders. How much these features phase, or interact with one another will determine how strong the weather system could be for us mid-week.
As of now, models have been trending downward for us locally, as the weather system would be much weaker Tuesday into Wednesday before strengthening to the East of us. That said, we could have just enough moisture and cold air to provide some spotty snow showers mixed in with rain over the Tuesday night into Wednesday time frame. We may then see some light snow Thursday into Friday on the back side of the system as our first true shot of winter air arrives. Potential snowfall accumulations are unimpressive locally compared to what some models were showing a day or two ago, but there is still lots of uncertainty with how the system may develop, so stay tuned to the forecast!
One thing that is more confident is the big-time cool down on the way for the middle to end of the week. High temperatures will be in the 30s Tuesday through Thursday, with lows in the 20s each night. Slim chances for precipitation begin Tuesday night into Wednesday and again Thursday, but coverage looks limited in Northern Illinois as of now.
Even colder weather will be arriving by end of the week, as highs will drop into the 20s by Friday and Saturday, with lows in the teens possible next weekend. The confidence in the below average trend continues into the turn of the calendar, with 80-90% chance of seeing below average temperatures between November 30th and December 4th, according to the Climate Prediction Center forecast.
This 7-day is the coldest one in quite a while, with highs dropping through the 30s and into the 20s much of the week, straight through Thanksgiving. Slim chances for snow may be possible Tuesday night through Thursday, with some rain possibly mixed in on Wednesday. As the Arctic air arrives for the weekend, snow flurries may be possible again, with little to no accumulation expected during that time.
