It has been quite the warm stretch so far this season, but especially so in the month of November. The only day this month to feature temperatures at or below average was the 1st, when we were only a degree shy of the 55° average high. The rest of the month has featured plenty of 50s and 60s. But some changes may be on the way toward this time next week.
Before we get there, the weekend will once again be a mild one, with highs making a run at the 60-degree mark each day. We will see our next slim chance for some rain showers Saturday night into Sunday, but many spots will not see much rain during this window.
Our next round of rain will move in between Monday-Tuesday as this weather system develops from the Desert Southwest into the Midwest/Great Lakes. Steady rain showers may be possible in the Mon-Tue window. Temperatures during this time will remain mild, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s/40s.
But as that system passes through Wednesday, it will begin to draw in much cooler air from back behind it. This rush of cold air will likely be the coldest of the season, pushing highs down into the 40s and lows possibly in the 20s. When we have air this cold, there is also a chance for some mixed precipitation. That said, the signals this far out are not very consistent, so we will still need to monitor this window after next Wednesday. It is worth noting that Rockford's first measurable snowfall occurs around the 20th of November.
Even though this will be air among the coldest we have seen this season, it will not be too far from average. Through the second half of November, average temperatures will continue dropping into the low 40s for highs and upper 20s for lows. So, while this air will come as a shock for many, it will actually be a return to "normal" for this time of year.
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