Saturday morning weather update

 With fall like weather finally staying consistent across the state line the past few days conditions although windy at times, have been generally comfortable since the rainfall in the middle of the week. Expect fall like conditions to stick around for the beginning of the month but as we approach the beginning of next week, a widespread rainfall event looks to be setting up.

Before getting into that, today will feature once again another comfortable fall like day. Temperatures will once again be moderate for this time of year with cloud cover increasing throughout most of the day today. Besides that, we'll hang on to a warmer feeling southeasterly wind which won't be anywhere near the gusts we experienced earlier in the week!

But as we move towards Sunday morning and afternoon, a shift in the upper-level jet stream pattern will shift upper-level flow out of the southwest bringing heavy gulf moisture and upper level forcing to the region. With this troughing feature of upper-level winds sticking around until Tuesday morning, increased moisture and upper-level flow will stick around as well fueling daily precipitation chances.

Multiple instances of heavy widespread rainfall look likely through the beginning of the week with the presence of so much moisture for this time of year. Sunday evening into Monday morning as of now look to be the heaviest of those burst but Monday especially, rain may stick around nearly all day to start the work week.

By the time this system has moved east we can see some very heavy precipitation totals across the state line from the system. Most areas look to receive at least one inch of rainfall, but other models have shown a widespread event of 2-3 inches across both the state line and most of northern Illinois. With this some flooding risk may take place too, so make sure to clear street drains especially now as all leaves have fallen off of most trees.

On the topic of flooding, the Weather Prediction Center has most of the state line in some risk for excessive rainfall for both Sunday and Monday. As of now Sunday does not look to have too big of a risk for extensive rainfall however through the night on Sunday some locations may see nearly a half an inch of rainfall.

But into Monday chances become higher as stronger upper-level flow, and even more moisture are funneled into the region. As of now here along the state line we are under a 2/4 slight risk for excessive rainfall. Although this isn't a "flood" risk this does at least support the fact that there will be instances of heavy rainfall and heavy accumulation throughout the day. So, as precautionary clean up any street drains possible and keep an eye on flooded roadways as water can still quickly rise.

After Tuesday morning though, a cold front looks to sweep through the region dropping us back into the 50's and drying us out until at least the weekend!