Monday, November 4, 2024

Monday late afternoon weather update

 


It's been a rather warm and somewhat humid early November day as temperatures warmed into the mid and upper 60s, with dew points in the 60s as well. This has made it feel more like early spring rather than mid-fall. With the cloud cover and incoming rain showers tonight overnight lows won't drop much, remaining in the low 60s through Tuesday morning.

A current scan of radar shows some drizzle and light showers lingering across the Stateline, but more widespread rain developing further southwest. These showers and thunderstorms are along the leading edge of higher moisture that is expected to move in late Monday night.


Ongoing severe thunderstorms across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas will continue through the evening as low pressure slowly lifts northeast. As it does, it'll bring a slight increase in instability into southern and central Illinois where isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight (Monday night). Increasing low level jet winds will be responsible for the storm threat through the night. But those same winds will also help transport an incredible amount of moisture northward into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. 


This will likely lead to rainfall totals nearing an inch for most across the region but totals higher than that are possible as a heavy band of rain is expected to develop. Where exactly that band sets up is still in question and depends on how things line up in the atmosphere later tonight, but within this band rainfall totals in excess of 2-3 inches are possible over a few hours. Localized flooding is possible, especially in poor drainage and low-lying areas. 


Most of the heavier rain will done mid-morning Tuesday, with scattered showers expected into the afternoon. A few isolated severe storms are possible in Wisconsin as low pressure moves through, as well as across northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.    

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