Lastest on the Weekend Weather

With each new day and model run we are starting to get a little better handle on what's going to happen this weekend.  Are we certain...no!  But things are starting to come together a little better than before.  There were a couple things I wanted to talk about to kind of give you an idea of just what we are looking at.

First, this storm is still off shore and isn't expected to come onshore until the next day or so.  As it does begin to move into the Pacific Northwest we will be able to get a better data sample that will then feed into our weather models.  This will help narrow down the potential track.  Secondly - the one model (the ECMWF) which was taking a more northerly track with the low has now jumped on board with it's latest run and pushed the low south.  This is more in line with our other models.  The current track, as of this morning, took the low through southern Missouri and southern Illinois and then strengthened it by Saturday night into the Ohio River Valley.  With this current track the possibility would be there for the heaviest of the snow to miss us to the south.  We would still end up with some (it's still way too early to even talk about totals) but we just might not see a significant amount.  Now I want to stress that any deviation from this track either north or south will play a role in what we get for this weekend.

A clipper system is expected to move north of the Stateline Thursday afternoon into the evening.  Now I'm fairly certain that the associated snow with this will likely not add too much to the current snow we have on the ground or even extend it further south.  But what we will be looking at is just where the baroclinic zone sets up after this clipper system Thursday.  With this weekend storm quickly coming in on the heals of the first one we might not have enough time to get the cold air to settle in.  That could possibly trend a further northward track.  However, the jetstream does dig out through the lower Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys and this would help drive the low.  Looking at how quickly the low will strengthen, there is the chance that it might not really gain strength until it reaches the lower Ohio River Valley which would be a big snow for places like Ohio and Pennsylvania and not so much for us.

Bottom line is this, I do expect some snow for us beginning Saturday afternoon and lasting into Sunday.  The million dollar question, though, is just how much.  As I mentioned before we should really start to get a better picture once we head into Thursday morning.