Model Chaos

One word, well a couple, came to mind this morning when I was putting the forecast together for this upcoming weekend: Model Chaos!  Talk about getting a headache after trying to figure out what the weather is going to be like Saturday into Sunday.  We could have everything thrown in but the kitchen sink by the time this is all said and done.  While we're still several days out and our storm system isn't even close to coming onshore yet, I thought I would discuss a little about what we are seeing for this upcoming weekend.  There are three different potential tracks this storm could take and unfortunately it seems like no one model agrees.  The ECMWF (European Model) has been fairly consistent with tracking the low pretty much right over Northern Illinois which would likely give us a nice mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow.  The second track comes to us from the GFS which has actually flip-flopped between yesterday mornings and last nights run.  This track would take the low through the southern tip of Illinois, keeping the heaviest of the snowfall through central Illinois and almost giving us nothing.  This one, just from my past experience and climatology, would suggest this solution is too far south.

The third track, which was more in line with yesterday mornings GFS and another model split the difference and move the low pretty much through central Illinois.  This would give us a heavy snowfall (maybe even a heavy, wet snow) and probably some lake effect in Chicago. 

Basically at this point it's like playing model roulette and trying to nail down a forecast this far in advance likely won't happen.  What it is going to come down to is just how this system is going to phase with the jetstream and how much of an impact the current snow cover will have.  Believe it or not, snow can have an impact on just where systems track because they can almost act like a boundary or front.  Obviously it's going to be cooler where the snow cover is and warmer where there isn't snow.  My feeling with this weekend is that the third track will likely pan out taking the low through central Illinois or just a little south of that yielding somewhere throughout the Great Lakes getting hit with snow.  I guess we'll see if my gut feeling pans out!