Friday, May 4, 2012

Quiet, but still some unsettled weekend weather

A weak cool front passed late this morning shifting winds across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois to the east/northeast.  Temperatures haven't cooled off much and really aren't expected to.  There has been a little moisture pooling along the front and a few cumulus clouds have developed within the past couple hours.

Storms from last night in the northern Plains continue to hold their own in southeast South Dakota.  The atmosphere out ahead of these storms in northwest Iowa has already begun to destabilize and it's possible that the elevated convection in South Dakota may become a little more surface based once they move into the more unstable airmass.  We'll have to watch how these storms evolve this afternoon because with a front extending from Nebraska to the southern Great Lakes, this will be the likely track they take.  Scattered thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and especially this evening and overnight.  Best chance for storm activity will remain west of I-39, however, all of northern Illinois could see some storm activity later.  Biggest threat should storms get going would be damaging winds and hail.  A more likely threat would be from what could possibly come tonight with the activity to the northwest.  Heavy rainfall may occur overnight as the storms in South Dakota form into an MCS and dive southeast.   

With the front positioned to our southwest this weekend, there will be a continued chance for thunderstorms.  A warm, moist airmass will continue to stream in from the south while a somewhat cooler and drier airmass will move in across the upper Great Lakes.  Storm chances will actually increase Sunday afternoon as yet another low passes just to our south.  Heavy rainfall may be possible Sunday night into next Monday morning.

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