Numerous clusters of showers and thunderstorms have been crossing southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois today. There have been lots of reports of severe thunderstorms with large hail, and areas of inundating flooding rains. There were even a couple of report of funnel clouds in Bureau and Iroquois counties. The Rockford area was pretty much spared from severe weather activity. In fact, with all the weather going on the Rockford airport only received 0.03" of rain today. With what appears to to a dry period coming on from day 8 to 14 in the extended forecast, our region could certainly use a generous dousing overnight. The question is.... "What are the chances of a good rainfall overnight"? The answer is... "There is potential for some good rains.
The weather system causing all this activity on Sunday still has to push across the area overnight, and early on Monday morning. There is high dew point air relatively close by over west central Illinois and extreme eastern Iowa. The system has plenty of moisture to work with in the overnight hours, and showers and thunderstorms over Iowa are moving east, and a new area of showers and heavy thunderstorms have developed just to the south of Interstate 88 across much of Lee county across the southern half of De Kalb county. Some areas will get more rain than they want overnight, and other areas will likely be shortchanged.
The low will be located very near Rochelle by 6 am. Showers will continue through the early morning hours, and there may even be a few rumbles of thunder in the morning. It will be mostly cloudy on Monday, and showers will diminish and end by the early to middle afternoon. It will be relatively cool with a high in the middle 60''s thanks to the clouds and a northwesterly breeze at 10 to 15 mph. Skies will start out partly cloudy on Monday night, but will gradually clear overnight. It will be cooler with a low in the upper 40's.
By Tuesday morning the front will shift all the way east to Ohio, and drape southwestward across Kentucky, and Tennessee, northern Louisiana, across southern Texas into the Big Bend Country. High pressure will settle into the high plains of Colorado. The Stateline will be situated in a cool northerly air flow out of Canada. It will be partly sunny, but with cold than normal air aloft, the atmosphere will be unstable. With the heating of the day clouds will grow by the mid day hours, and may produce some instability showers, and perhaps even a thunderstorm through 4 pm or so. It will be partly cloudy and cool overnight on Tuesday night with a low around 46 degrees.
The weather picture will not change much on Wednesday. It will be partly cloudy, and there could be some more instability showers in the afternoon. It will be cool with a light northeasterly breeze. The high temperature will only be in the low 60's. The average high this time of year is around 70 degrees. It will be clear and cool overnight on Wednesday night with a low around 44 degrees.
On Thursday a ridge of high pressure will be draped across the mid west stretching from James Bay across Lake Superior, Wisconsin, and Missouri all the way to northeast Texas. The high will have complete control of Stateline are weather providing a day full with sunshine, blue skies, light winds, and afternoon temperatures in the middle to upper 60's. With the high nearby overnight, it will be cool again with a low in the middle 40's.
On Friday the day will start our with full sunshine, but some clouds will move in during the afternoon as the high pressure shifts of to the east allowing the next cool front to approach the Stateline from the plains. The high temperature will reach the low 70's, but the cool front will push across durning the night with a scattering of showers and thunderstorms.
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