A disturbance moving east out of Iowa caused some light rain showers on Saturday morning. Prior to this morning's rainfall, the Rockford airport had recorded only 0.10" of rain so far this June. The rain this morning was 0.30", so the total for the month was up to 0.40". The average amount of rain to this date should be 2.58". That combined with the earlier deficit combined with the June shortage of -4.27" so far for the year. Early stages of drought have developed across the Stateline with both the corn and soybean crops suffering from the lack of moisture.
The next question is....what are our chances of getting some good rainfall amounts tonight? A large thunderstorm complex moved out of Iowa, across the Mississippi river into northwest and north central Illinois this evening and dissipated on the northern end across Winnebago county while maintaining itself to the south and east of Winnebago county. It looked for a time as if the Rockford metro area would get very little precipitation out of this. While watching the evolution of this convective complex, as of 11 pm CDT Saturday night, it appears as if there is some new development taking place on the northwest side, and that could lead to some better rainfall totals in the Rockford area. Regardless, a cool front will push across the Stateline in the overnight, and stretch from Chicago to Quincy by daybreak pushing whatever rain there is to the east of northern Illinois before the sun rises on Father's Day.
The sky will become mostly sunny on Father's Day. It will be quite warm, but not hot with high temperatures in the afternoon around 87 degrees. There will be a gentle breeze from the west around 10 mph. The humidity levels will drop a bit with the dew points dropping back into the upper 50's during the afternoon. It will be a great day for any outdoor activities you may have planned. A warm front will approach from the southwest early Sunday night, possibly scattering some thunderstorms across the area in the overnight as it moves through, and then off to the northeast by daybreak on Monday morning.
Southwesterly winds will blow with gusto on Monday acting as a "blow torch" bringing a surge of scorching heat to the Stateline, and by Monday afternoon the temperature will be around 95 degrees with a wind of 20 to 30 mph gusting to 35 mph. It will be a mostly sunny, hot, and quite humid day. It will not cool down much on Monday night with a low around 73 degrees. Tuesday will be pretty much of a repeat of Monday, but the wind, although brisk, will not be quite as strong. So the high on Tuesday will be around 95 degrees again, and the low on Tuesday night will not be low at all... around 75 degrees. On Wednesday the heat will continue with a high in the low 90's.
Some scattered thunderstorms will develop on Wednesday night with a cool front approaching from the northwest. The low overnight will still be warm... in the low 70's. The front will sag across the area on Thursday scattering some thunderstorms across the Stateline, and dropping afternoon temperatures into the middle 80's. The front will be southeast of the area by early Friday morning, but still close enough to provide a slight chance of some showers in the morning hours. Clouds will decrease by afternoon, and it will be cooler with a northerly breeze. The afternoon high will be around 80 degrees.
A bubble of high pressure from Canada will settle into Iowa by early Saturday morning. After a cool start in the upper 50's, the temperature will rise to the upper 70's under sunny skies.
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