Records Melt Out West

11 states out west from Texas to California north all the way to Washington saw blistering heat this weekend.  Here's how hot the western United States got today:

Sunday 6/30 High Temps

This is due to a persistent, dominant ridge of high pressure. Here's a list of how hot some cities got this weekend:

Feelin' Hot Hot Hot!

The jet stream--very fast winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere--divide air masses.  Luckily, instead of the jet undulating and allowing the heat to get to the Midwest, the trough that is currently in the eastern United States will actually dig southward and intensify allowing for comfortable air to remain around the Stateline.  But, as the trough intensifies, the low pressure system that is currently in the Tennessee River Valley will become cut off from the jet stream and drift back north.  This will bring along the potential for some storms to pop up starting overnight Tuesday in to Wednesday morning and that unstable pattern will persist through the weekend.  But don't cancel your 4th of July plans quite yet; again this low will only give the potential for more storms, and at this point it looks like we'll just have isolated rain chances. - MT

Sunday's Jet Stream Pattern

Wednesday's Jet Stream Pattern

Last Day of Rain!

Officially at Rockford International Airport we've gotten 0.74" of additional rainfall today.  The nagging rain throughout Saturday really dampened our temperatures and for most of the day, we were stuck in the mid 60s.

Temps throughout Saturday 6/29/13

 Luckily, we have a reprieve from the rain coming up Sunday and Monday, which is good news because we've gone nine days straight with rain! The last time Rockford went nine days in a row with rainfall was April 11-19, 2013 during that historic flooding event across the Midwest.  Not only has the rain been persistent, it's also been plentiful.  In the last nine days alone, we surpassed the average amount of rain we're supposed to get during the entire month of June! - MT

Past Nine Days vs. Average June Rainfall

2013: Very Wet So Far

The Stateline has gotten its fair share of the rain thus far in 2013.  In fact, officially in Rockford, we've gotten more rain through June 28th than we saw in the entire 2012 year!  Granted, last year we were experiencing drought-like conditions.  In fact, at one point 95% of Illinois and 51% of Wisconsin was in the "severe" drought category.

Drought Analysis in 2012 vs. 2013

Nonetheless, the amount of rain the Stateline has gotten so far in 2013 does exceed average rainfall amounts too.  Through June 28th, the average amount of rainfall is 16.86"  Rockford has already gotten 26.41", a 157% jump over the average amount.  2012's 23.35" was only 64% of average rain amounts for the entire year. - MT

Compare Rockford Rain 2012 vs. 2013

Strong Storm Update

Strong storm in DeKalb county near DeKalb reported a 46mph wind gust.  Gusts up to 55mph are possible with this storm.

Hinkley just reported an estimated 50mph wind gust with these storms.  The strongest cells have since moved into Kane County... - MT

June rainfall adding up - Additional showers/storms possible

Rainfall during the month of June started off a little slower than some would have liked.  After coming off of a fairly wet and cool spring it was nice to dry out but it was starting to get a little too dry; until last Friday night.  Thunderstorms pounded the Midwest with significant rain falling over parts of Wisconsin and Northern Illinois late last Friday and early Saturday morning.  In fact, Rockford set a daily rainfall record last Saturday when over 2 inches of rain fell.  Additional showers and thunderstorms in the days to follow really added up with continuous thunderstorms through Thursday evening.  So far 6.89" of rain has fallen in June putting us nearly two and a half inches above the monthly average.  What's even more impressive is a little more than five and a half inches of that rain fell within a week!  A few thunderstorms did develop Thursday afternoon with torrential downpours but most of that fell east and northeast of the Stateline.

Additional showers/storms are likely again today and Saturday as a few upper level disturbances move through.  The image on the left is the future radar at 3pm from the HRRR model and it shows those showers and thunderstorms popping up with the heating of the day and drifting to the south and southeast.  I believe showers will begin to develop around noon to the north in Wisconsin and move into northern Illinois between 1pm and 3pm.  While severe weather isn't anticipated some of the heavier showers/storms could contain small hail and brief heavy downpours.  Rainfall amounts over the next couple of days should remain under an inch so any additional river flooding is not anticipated.

Stateline Flooding Update: 6-27-13

Fortunately, Thursday stayed dry for most of the Stateline. For many area rivers, we are expecting flood waters to crest over the next 48 hours. Here's a glance at when some of the main rivers around the Rockford area should top out.

Below are some of the detailed river forecasts from the National Weather Service:

The Rock River at Rockton and Latham Park:

 The Pecatonica River at Freeport:

The Kishwaukee River at Belvidere:

Turtle Creek at Beloit:

For more detailed info on current Stateline rivers levels and flooding forecasts, click here.

Slight Chance For Severe Weather Thursday

We're be monitoring a few showers and storms in Wisconsin that could swing into the Stateline later this afternoon.

Precision Doppler just after 1:30pm is showing a few showers and storms north of Madison. These storms are moving southeast, meaning most of us have nothing to worry about. A few more storms will be possible as we roll through the rest of our Thursday.

Here is today's outlook from the Storm Prediction Center and the threat forecast for the Stateline. As you can see, most of these storms should stay to our northeast and we won't be talking anything major is severe storms do roll in, but it is something to keep an eye out for. -BA

Turtle Creek in Beloit reaches record crest level

Turtle Creek in Beloit reached a record crest this morning of 13.59'!  Water levels on the creek have been dropping upstream and are expected to begin dropping downstream soon.  Flooding, however, continues to occur in Beloit.  Rock River water levels are expected to crest within the next day or two with moderate flooding expected.  Click here for an up-to-date look at water levels and expected crests for area rivers.

Thunderstorms possible this afternoon

Mesoscale update from the Chicago NWS regarding storm development this afternoon:

 

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1216 PM CDT

STRONG SUMMER TIME JET STREAM DIVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY
WITH MORNING U/A ANALYSIS SHOWING NEARLY 100KT WINDS FROM BIS
SOUTHEAST TO MPX ALONG THE AXIS OF THIS JET. WEAK SURFACE FRONT
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ALREADY BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH A
MORE PRONOUNCED PUNCH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR STRETCHED FROM
NORTHERN WI SOUTH INTO EASTERN IOWA. NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS OVER IL NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DEWPOINTS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000+ J/KG WITH
LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING BY MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SECONDARY FRONT HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO WEST
AND NORTHWEST RESULTING IN VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.
ACTUALLY...STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE BREEZE HAS FORMED. OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE BREEZE...TOUGH TO FIND ANY GOOD SURFACE FEATURES TO FOCUS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT. ALOFT...ENCROACHING STREAM WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING ASCENT...WITH DEVELOPING ACCAS FIELD NOTED ON VSBL
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LIKELY ALREADY AN
INDICATION OF THIS TAKING PLACE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS AN AXIS OF CUMULUS BLOSSOMING ACROSS FAR EASTERN IL AND
WESTERN INDIANA.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE...REALLY HARD TO FIND ANYTHING SPECIFIC
AT THIS POINT TO HANG MY HAT ON FOR PIN POINTING WHEN/WHERE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION
AND GIVEN THE DESTABILIZATION THAT IS TAKING PLACE CAN'T DISPUTE
THIS. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO BE MORE SO OVER OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...BUT CERTAINLY THREAT DOES EXIST SOUTHWEST
CWA TOO.

RATHER NEBULOUS FORCING WOULD TEND TO FAVOR CONVECTION BEING MORE
CELLULAR/SCATTERED IN NATURE VS LINEAR. THE WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER
SHOWS 60-70KT FLOW AT 5-6KM WITH RAP SEEMINGLY HAVING A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS SHOWING 50KT+ AT 5KM SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR >40KT. THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED CELLULAR NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
SUPERCELLS. STRONG VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW IS CERTAINLY NOT FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES...BUT THE STRONG SHEAR AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH
EXPECTED SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE COULD RESULT IN LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 1.5 INCH DIAMETER. SOME THREAT WOULD
EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL...THOUGH THE MORE PROMINENT THREAT
WOULD APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEEDED.

 

 

 

Thunderstorms will be possible once again this afternoon as an upper level disturbance rolls through the Great Lakes.  Storms have been moving through southwest Iowa and into northern Missouri but those won't be a factor for us as they're moving more southeast.  Thunderstorms are likely to develop between 2pm and 3pm in Wisconsin and drift southeast into north-central Illinois after 3pm and begin to diminish as the sun begins to set.  Storms, should they develop, they could become strong as winds in the atmosphere favor hail and wind producing storms.  Because of this the Storm Prediction Center has northern Illinois southern Wisconsin under a slight risk for storms this afternoon. 

Stateline Flooding Update: 6-26-13

Heavy rain hammered parts of the Stateline Wednesday morning, which is leading to flooding concerns heading into the weekend.

Estimated rainfall on our Precision Doppler shows the heaviest rain falling in areas like Janesville and Rockford heading east into Boone and McHenry counties.

Much of this rain fell in a hurry. Areas like Rockford picked up several inches of rain in a matter of hours. Here are some of the National Weather Service's preliminary reports from Wednesday's rain.

Many area rivers are expected to crest Thursday night into Friday morning. Here are some of the latest forecasts from Wednesday night...

The Rock River at Rockton and Latham Park:
 

The Pecatonica River at Freeport:

The Kishwaukee River at Belvidere:

For a full list of current river levels and forecasts, you can click here.

Flooding Pictures

Richard Landsee
Cherry Valley

Michelle Angileri
Argus Drive
 

Michelle Angileri
Argus Drive

Richard Landsee
Cherry Valley

Ken Stoll
Esmond, IL

Lynne Mesnard
Baseball Field in Durand

Jeff Lathrop

Union Pacific/North West Line
ABC7 Chicago

Ken Stoll
Esmond, IL
 



Tammy English
Near SwedishAmerican

Jeff Lathrop
 

Jeff Lathrop

Tammy English
Near SwedishAmerican

Wednesday morning update

IF YOU HAVE ANY WEATHER REPORTS PLEASE EMAIL: WEATHER@WTVO.COM

(11:59:18 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: De Kalb [Dekalb Co, IL] law enforcement reports FLOOD at 11:54 AM CDT -- water across many roadways across northern part of dekalb county.

(11:23:21 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] law enforcement reports FLOOD at 11:00 AM CDT -- from winnebago county sheriff...many roads flooded in the county but no roads closed at this time.

11:15am:  The heaviest of the rain is beginning to move out but significant flooding has taken place across Rockford with roads, parking lots and creeks being overcome with water. 








(10:44:00 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports FLOOD at 10:41 AM CDT -- 10th avenue park inundated with water

(10:38:37 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 2 N Belvidere [Boone Co, IL] trained spotter reports FLOOD at 10:34 AM CDT -- water over southbound lanes of highway 76 at spring creek rd

Flash Flood Warnings are now in effect for Winnebago and Boone counties until 4:30pm.  There have been several reports of standing water on roads and Keith Creek was at bankfull.  Additional showers will continue to runoff and cause flooding.

Estimated radar rainfall rates of over an inch per hour are occurring with the heaviest of the rain now eastern Winnebago and Boone counties.  Flash flooding has been occurring across Rockford.  Remember, if you see a flooded roadway TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN! 





(10:28:19 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.45 INCH at 10:25 AM CDT -- rain fell in 70 minutes


(9:54:37 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 2 W Milton [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M3.50 INCH at 09:54 AM CDT -- 24 hour rainfall total ending at 10 am cdt

(9:57:53 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: SE Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports FLOOD at 09:45 AM CDT -- 6 inches standing water at harrison ave and olsen.

(9:57:53 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports HEAVY RAIN of M1.85 INCH at 09:50 AM CDT -- rain in 40 minutes. at east state st and Fairview.

Thunderstorms producing very heavy rain have developed across Winnebago, Boone, Ogle and DeKalb counties moving slowly to the northeast around 20mph.  Loves Park, Machesney Park, Rockford, New Milford, Belvidere, DeKalb, Kingston, Sycamore, Genoa, Poplar Grove, Carpon, Forreston, Creston and Malta will all be impacted.  Flash flooding will be possible with some of the heaviest of the rain.






Major flooding taking place to the north and east this morning.  Eyewitness News Reporter Matt Rodewald snapped this photo in Crystal Lake on Terra Cotta Road north of Northwest Highway.  Remember:  NEVER DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY.  It looks like the red car in the photo may have either stalled from trying to drive through or has become stranded.



(9:21:15 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports FLOOD at 09:18 AM CDT -- 4-6 inches standing water at the intersection of american and alpine rds

(8:40:50 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Edgerton [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports FLASH FLOOD at 08:40 AM CDT -- west fulton st is blocked off due to flooding. 1 foot of water over road.


(8:25:31 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Janesville [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports FLASH FLOOD at 08:22 AM CDT -- blackbridge and kennedy road impassable. cars stuck


(7:55:45 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Dayton [Green Co, WI] law enforcement reports FLASH FLOOD at 07:50 AM CDT -- numerous roads barricaded due to high water. county road n north of dayton closed due to flooding. high water issues reported from belville to dayton and brooklyn. 2 day rainfall estimates from 9 inches on legacy products to 12 inches on dual pol. up to 4 inches in the past 4 hours.

(7:29:46 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 4 NE Algonquin [Mchenry Co, IL] cocorahs reports HEAVY RAIN of M6.00 INCH at 07:00 AM CDT -- rain in past 2 hours

(6:55:48 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 2 NE Mchenry [Mchenry Co, IL] cocorahs reports HEAVY RAIN of M5.29 INCH at 06:54 AM CDT -- most fell between 3am and 6am.

(6:42:27 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Crystal Lake [Mchenry Co, IL] co-op observer reports HEAVY RAIN of M4.50 INCH at 06:41 AM CDT -- 24 hour total

(6:02:36 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 1 S Mchenry [Mchenry Co, IL] co-op observer reports FLASH FLOOD at 05:59 AM CDT -- entire roads covered with three to four inches of water...flowing in places. some areas impassable. on rte 31 south of mchenry.


(5:39:02 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Woodstock [Mchenry Co, IL] co-op observer reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.79 INCH at 05:35 AM CDT -- 24 hour total with most of it this morning. water covering streets of downstown woodstock about 3 inches deep at this time.

Thunderstorms developed over northern Illinois early this morning producing heavy rain, frequent lightning and even small hail.  Those storms have now moved to the north and east and continue to produce significant flooding concerns for McHenry County.  Flash Flood Warnings have been issued for Boone and McHenry counties until 11:30.

The storm complex will continue to weaken as it moves into northern Illinois later this morning but additional storms may develop later today ahead of the main cold front and low pressure system forecast to move through mid-afternoon.  Once this system passes the active weather pattern will shut down, however, showers and storms will occur Thursday and Friday as weak disturbances move through the Great Lakes.

Tuesday Night Severe Weather Update

10:45pm Update: Storms are now starting to develop in Iowa. These storms will move east-southeast into Illinois sometime after midnight.

 If storms become severe, they will be capable of strong winds and hail. The bigger concern heading into the day Wednesday will be flash flooding as storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity by Wednesday morning. The Stateline remains under a Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening.

9:55pm Update: A Severe T-Storm Watch in is effect for Whiteside and Lee until 5:00am.

Stay tuned to WTVO, FOX 39, MyStateline.com, and the blog for more on developing severe weather.