Friday afternoon weather update

The showers from earlier this morning continue to move east of I-39 with skies beginning to clear near the Mississippi River.  Within the clearing temperatures have reached the low to middle 70s while we're stuck in the middle 60s.  As we head through the afternoon I anticipate temperatures to rise a little as clouds begin to break up across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  The strong cold front currently extends from northern Wisconsin southwest to just west of Dubuque, IA. 

There have been a few scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms that have developed west and southwest of Madison where skies have cleared allowing instability to rise slightly.  This will be the area for favored storm development for the next couple of hours as an upper level low moves through southern Minnesota and northern Iowa into Wisconsin.  Instability and low level lapse rates (change in temperature with height) will continue to increase as the front and strong low pressure system move through Wisconsin.  Additional thunderstorms will likely develop across central Wisconsin and possibly eastern Iowa/far northwest Illinois through the afternoon.  The greatest likelihood of strong storms appears to be north of the state line from Monroe to Janesville and points northward.  There, storms may produce large hail and strong wind gusts. 

Here is the WSI RPM model for 3pm this afternoon.  You how the storms line up along the front extending from Green Bay, WI to Platteville, WI to Mt. Carroll, IL.  Instability across the immediate Stateline (northern Illinois) may be limited due to the current cloud cover.  However, I still expect a few thunderstorms to move across the area through 7pm before ending with the passage of the cold front.