Tuesday Weather Update

12:30pm Radar Update: Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue to move across N. IL and S. WI.  Cloud cover remains expansive and the current rain may have an impact on thunderstorm potential later this afternoon and evening.  The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight the Stateline under a slight risk for storms today, but current thinking is that after the current rain moves through the atmosphere may not have enough time to recharge itself by the time the cold front passes.  The showers will persist through early afternoon with a few embedded thunderstorms.  Any storm development later this evening will depend upon what develops back out to the west.

The image on the left is a 'future' radar image from the HRRR (Rapid Refresh) model at 4pm today. It has had a pretty good handle on the convection so far today so it's likely a good model to follow. This model shows the current non-severe shower/storm activity in western Illinois moving through Rockford between 1pm and 4pm. If storms don't develop later this afternoon/evening back in Iowa then the storm threat will be lowered for us going into the overnight. As was mentioned above, if the atmosphere isn't able to recover much from the current clouds/showers in the Stateline the storm threat will be lowered. Thunderstorms are still possible to the west in Iowa ahead of the cold front but any further development remains a bit of a question at this moment. For right now, look for the rain with a few embedded thunderstorms to move into Rockford by mid-afternoon.




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Morning Update:

9:20 am Radar Update: Isolated pockets of moderate to heavy rain has developed in Whiteside County and southwest Wisconsin.  Look for heavy downpours with a few embedded thunderstorms

It sure is muggy outside!  A stationary boundary around the Wisconsin/Illinois border has allowed moisture to 'pool' in the Stateline.  This has caused dew points to rise into the low to middle 70s - already at 7:30 this morning!  Clouds will be on the increase through the morning ahead of non-severe thunderstorms in eastern Iowa.  The cloud cover may help limited instability some, but with so much heat and moisture in the atmosphere scattered thunderstorms will be likely later this morning and afternoon.  A few thunderstorms have been developing south of I-88 this morning but due to the WSW flow in the jet stream those will likely move south of Chicago and only skim our southern counties.  The storms in eastern Iowa will need some watching as they move into the moisture rich atmosphere.  Thunderstorms will be near the Mississippi River within the next couple of hours...likely around 9am...and into N. IL and South-Central Wisconsin late morning/early afternoon; although a few individual storms may develop ahead of this line.  These storms may actually 'work over' the atmosphere across the Stateline limiting the severe threat later in the day ahead of the main cold front.  If stronger storms are able to develop it looks like strong winds would be the primary concern, but heavy rainfall will occur with any thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon.