We've been hearing it now for the past several months as signals continue to point to a strong El Niño for the 2015/2016 winter season. And with the latest winter outlook recently released from the Climate Prediction Center, it shouldn't come as any surprise that the 3 month forecast period for December, January and February call for a likelihood of above average temperatures and below average precipitation. Good news for those who don't like the cold and snow, but possibly bad news for those who need the snow for business.
But before we celebrate and write off winter completely, it's important to look at what past El Niño events have brought to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. While the overall trend would imply a milder and drier winter, the graphic below shows that even during strong El Niño events, colder air tends to win out.
 |
| Image: Climate.gov |
These graphics are provided by Climate.gov, and break down strong, moderate and weak El Niño events and just what the winter months produced. The strongest El Niño on record, so far, was the winter of '97/'98. Temperatures were much warmer than average, but precipitation was near average to slightly above. But what I also want to point out that even during strong El Niño events, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin experienced cooler than average temperatures, breaking the warmer trend.
 |
| Image: Climate.gov |
The same can be said for precipitation. Notice that even during strong El Niño events, some years recorded above average precipitation. The important factor to take away from this is that while yes, the trend for this winter to be slightly above average with below average precipitation can be expected, it shouldn't be treated as the absolute. One really cold month or one major snow storm could skew the numbers and overall winter outlook.
Click here if you'd like to read the full analysis from Climate.gov
No comments:
Post a Comment