El Nino Update

A strong El Nino pattern still looks likely for the winter season, depending what kind of winter weather you like this could be the winter for you.

An El Nino will develop when sea surface temperatures are very warm in the pacific ocean near the equator, for an extended period of time. This has big effects on us, especially in the winter, because they have big impacts to weather patterns. One thing to note its that each El Nino is different, but there are some patterns that are pretty predictable. The most common pattern is when the polar - or northern jet stream - is farther north than usual. If the polar jet stays north into northern Canada, then we see warmer temperatures across the Midwest. The secondary branch, the Pacific or southern jet stream, is then placed farther south into the southern states. With this, the active weather is focused more to the south. This means for the Midwest that we have a better shot at seeing drier months through winter. The south west and southern states usually see a wetter pattern, with activity focused near that jet. Warm air will be able to build north with the polar jet settled north and so the Pacific Northwest and northern portions of the U.S will see a better chance at above normal temperatures.

With this set up, it doesn't mean that we won't see the cold in winter, it just means that our typical extreme cold might be a little more mild and less frequent. Overall, warmer conditions could also reduce the frequency of heavy snowfall events that we see.

Right now, the Climate Prediction Center has issued their current 3 month outlook, and its shows that the Midwest has a 30% probability of seeing above normal temperatures and equal chances for seeing above or below normal precipitation. While its still a little too far out to say for sure about the winter, the month of October looks to shape up a little warmer and drier than normal.