Warmth Continues

It was a very warm day across the Stateline with temperatures reaching the middle and even upper 70's. Those warm temperatures were brought to us by strong southwesterly winds that gusted upwards of 40mph earlier this afternoon. Those winds will continue tonight and that will hold our temperatures into the middle 50's as opposed to the 40's we saw Monday morning. This pattern will continue to hold true through Wednesday afternoon.
          That is because we will remain in the warm sector of an approaching cold front that will finally reach the region by Wednesday afternoon. As long as we remain in the warm sector of the system, we will get southerly winds and see warm temperatures.
          So we keep those 70's through Wednesday before that system finally reaches us and brings some rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The showers will not bring the colder weather, though. It will be the actual front that brings in that colder weather, and that will not move through until late Wednesday afternoon. That is why, despite Tuesday night's rain showers, Wednesday will be another warm day.
         

          On the image above you can see the front well off to the west. That is what will bring those much needed rain showers Tuesday night. I say much needed because thus far in October we've only picked up one one-hundredth of an inch of rainfall. That is far below the average through October 19th. When you combine the dryness with dry soils, strong winds, and low relative humidity values, you get an elevated fire danger. That explains the Red Flag Warning earlier today that has now expired. However, just because it has been allowed to expire does not mean the fire danger is gone.
          Until we receive some beneficial rainfall Tuesday night, the fire risk will be above normal. Once the front moves through Wednesday afternoon, that risk should recede, especially in areas that pick up any of that rain. Overall, I do expect most of the region to see some shower activity, although this event does not look significant at this time.