The Heat Dies Down with Thunderstorms to Follow

Now that these hot conditions will be coming to an end tonight, our next area of focus will be on the threat for some strong thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.  We are under a Slight Risk for Severe Weather.  A cold front will be moving into the area tomorrow afternoon, initiating thunderstorm development across the Stateline area.


As for this evening, heat indices will be in the triple-digits early on, but then in the low 90's by late evening, with temperatures becoming more manageable in the mid 70's overnight.

This warm front to the west will continue firing up thunderstorms going through the evening over in Iowa.  This front will slowly drift southward during the evening, which will allow these thunderstorms to drift towards us as we head into the overnight.

Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside counties have the best chances for seeing thunderstorms after 10pm as we head into the overnight.  These storms aren't expected to be severe, but some quick bursts of heavy rainfall will be possible.

By the time we get to around 4am, a shortwave trough will dig into our area, bringing us chance for seeing isolated thunderstorms that push further eastward into the viewing area.  The orange area is the area that has the best chances for seeing thunderstorm activity during the overnight, while the far eastern areas will mostly likely stay dry.


Once we get to early Sunday morning, a few thunderstorms may linger in Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside counties, but otherwise the Stateline will be dry for Sunday morning.

 However, once we get into the afternoon our thunderstorm chances will return.  We stay dry early afternoon, but after 1pm our thunderstorm chances will start going up with an approaching cold front from the west.  This will bring isolated thunderstorms late afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms moving in as we head into the evening.

The main threat that will come with these thunderstorms is flooding, as some heavy downpours will be possible in some of these thunderstorms.  A few strong wind gusts and quarter-sized hail will also be possible in these storms due to high instability, but flooding is the main concern as we are still recovering from the recent floods.


Heading into the work week we look to stay dry, but it'll stay pretty warm and muggy through most of next week, as temperatures look to be in the upper 80's.

A quick pop-up storm will be possible for Fourth of July, but otherwise we look to stay dry for the holiday.  Better thunderstorm chances come in on Thursday with a weak frontal boundary moving through.  Temperatures could reach the 90's again for Fourth of July and Thursday.