Sunday, July 2, 2017

Fourth Forecast Doesn't Look all that Terrible

Mother Nature may be providing her own fireworks display for some across the Midwest on the fourth of July.  And while there is a chance for rain both Monday and Tuesday, there also looks to be many dry hours to enjoy.

A cold front bisects the Stateline Sunday evening with winds shifting around to the north and northeast following the front in Wisconsin, and southwest winds still holding on strong south of the front in Illinois.  There have been a few showers/storms - some severe - that have been forming along the cold front in Wisconsin, but those thunderstorms have been few and far between.  I can't completely rule out an isolated shower/storm through about Midnight as the front continues to sink southward, but most locations should remain dry.  Some towns, like Freeport and Rochelle, have their fireworks display this evening.  Just a slight chance for a shower/storm between 9pm and 10pm for Freeport, and most of Rochelle is looking dry until after 10pm.  In fact, it's a pretty packed house at the Flight Deck at the Rochelle Airport!

The cold front that is moving through now will stall to the southwest Monday and Tuesday as high pressure settles in over the eastern Great
Lakes.  This will provide a little more a stable atmosphere over northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  With very little wind support in the upper part of the atmosphere, any thunderstorms that develop Monday would likely remain below severe limits (but could be heavy rain producers) and mostly be tied to the stalled front.  This should leave the majority of the Stateline dry for Monday afternoon.  The exception would be a few spotty showers Monday morning along the front.

High pressure retreats a bit further to the east on Tuesday with a developing low to the southwest.  This low will push the warm front closer to northern Illinois during the afternoon.  Like Monday, there is very little wind support in the atmosphere to sustain any long lasting thunderstorms.  With the heating of the day, isolated showers/storms may develop but should gradually decrease with the setting sun and the atmosphere slowly becoming a little more stable.

Unfortunately the same can't be said for late Tuesday night and Wednesday with low pressure moving in.  Looks like Wednesday could be a rainy day, especially late afternoon and evening.

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